Twenty-five must-see non-conference games in 2012-13

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Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.

To browse through the preview posts we’ve already published, click here. To look at the rest of The Lists we’ve published, click here. For a schedule of our previews for the month, click here.

The season is rapidly approaching, with less than two weeks to go before practices officially begin across the nation. So, what are some of the non-conference games that you should keep an eye on this season? Twenty-five such games are listed below including a couple surprises (tried to list a team no more than twice), but the game at the top of the list should surprise no one.

1. Kentucky at Louisville (December 29)
This game topping the list shouldn’t be a surprise, as the Wildcats and Cardinals are two of the teams expected to contend for a national title. Kentucky won both meetings last year, something that the Louisville players will be reminded of quite often. Youth vs. experience and two of the best coaches in the game makes for must-see entertainment at the KFC Yum! Center.

2. North Carolina at Indiana (November 27)
Given the heavy personnel losses that North Carolina suffered the team that shows up in Bloomington probably won’t look like the “finished” product come March. But a game like this can be an excellent learning tool for Roy Williams’ team as they’ll take on the team many have labeled as the favorite to win the national title. North Carolina traditionally ranks among the best teams in the country, but do they have the horses to win at Indiana?

3. Duke vs. Kentucky (November 13)
Another one of the “youth vs. experience” battles for Kentucky, but as we’ve seen during the John Calipari era the Wildcats win them more often than not. But Duke in Atlanta should be an intriguing match-up, especially when considering Kentucky’s Kyle Wiltjer, Nerlens Noel and Alex Poythress taking on Duke’s Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly and Amile Jefferson.

4. Louisville at Memphis (December 15)
The old foes get together in one final non-conference battle before the Tigers join the Big East in 2013, and Josh Pastner’s got a team that is talented enough to win some NCAA tournament games. Adonis Thomas is back to full strength after missing a sizable portion of last season with a broken foot, and the arrival of Shaq Goodwin will help the Tigers inside. Louisville is deep and experienced, but the game will ultimately come down to how much point guards Joe Jackson (Memphis) and Peyton Siva (Louisville) have improved.

5. NC State at Michigan (November 27)
This is probably a bit high on the list but Michigan should be one of Indiana’s biggest challengers in the Big Ten. Guard Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. both return and John Beilein also has his best incoming freshman class since arriving in Ann Arbor. But the same can be said for the Wolfpack, who have an outstanding freshman class with three McDonald’s All-Americans joining an experienced rotation.

6. Michigan State vs. Kansas (November 13)
The other game in the Champions Classic doubleheader matches two teams that were highly successful last season but have to replace some important contributors. The Spartans have to adjust to life without Draymond Green, meaning more responsibility for veterans such as Adreian Payne, Derrick Nix and Keith Appling. Kansas moves on with Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor in the NBA, and they’ll ask for more from Elijah Johnson, Jeff Withey and Travis Releford. Both have highly-touted newcomers as well, and the questions for both teams should make for a fun battle.

7. Ohio State at Duke (November 28)
Part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, this game will offer a nice look into the progression of Duke point guard Quinn Cook. He’ll have the ball in his hands quite a bit this season, but Ohio State has arguably the nation’s best on-ball defender in junior Aaron Craft. The Buckeyes lose Jared Sullinger and William Buford but DeShaun Thomas returns and LaQuinton Ross should be ready to go after minimal playing time once he was ruled eligible last season.

8. UNLV at North Carolina (December 29)
UNLV won last year’s meeting in impressive fashion in Las Vegas; can they do the same in Chapel Hill? A talented cast of newcomers joins a corps of veterans led by senior guard Anthony Marshall, and Dave Rice’s team is more than capable of making serious noise in March. North Carolina has a healthy Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland, and James Michael McAdoo is a player many expect to break out in 2012-13.

9. San Diego State vs. UCLA (December 1 in Anaheim)
While many are focusing on the talent that’s arrived in Westwood don’t underestimate San Diego State when it comes to who the best team in southern California is. Reigning Mountain West POY Jamaal Franklin returns as do Chase Tapley, James Rahon and Xavier Thames, and newcomers such as freshman Winston Shepard will be heard from as well. UCLA will counter with their four-member freshman class and front court returnees who need to step up if they’re to contend in the Pac-12.

10. Florida at Arizona (December 15)
Despite having to go with Nick Johnson at the point the Wildcats held their own in Gainesville in last season’s meeting. With Mark Lyons on board don’t look for Sean Miller to have to make such a move in the rematch. Florida boasts an experienced front court led by Patric Young and Erik Murphy, which will be a good test for Arizona’s young but talented front court.

11. Kansas at Ohio State (December 22)
These two met in Lawrence last season (sans an injured Jared Sullinger) with the Jayhawks picking up the victory. Is Naadir Tharpe ready to take over at the point for Kansas, or will it be someone else that runs the show? Whoever that man may be, they’ll have to deal with the defense of Aaron Craft. And three players who either had to sit out all of (KU’s Ben McLemore and Jamari Traylor) or saw limited duty (OSU’s LaQuinton Ross) last season will be on display.

12. Syracuse vs. San Diego State (November 9)
This one’s actually being played on the USS Midway just outside of San Diego, so while the Aztecs are much closer to the venue this won’t be like playing in front of “The Show” from an atmosphere standpoint. How prepared is sophomore Michael Carter-Williams to take over at the point? We’re going to find out as he’ll take on SDSU’s experienced back court led by Mountain West POY Jamaal Franklin.

13. Saint Joseph’s at Creighton (December 1)
Hopefully college basketball fans don’t overlook this battle because both the Hawks and Bluejays are capable of making noise this season. The individual match-up of Creighton’s Doug McDermott and Saint Joseph’s C.J. Aiken shouldn’t disappoint (although it’s possible that Aiken will see more of Gregory Echenique than McDermott), and both teams have very good players on the perimeter as well.

14. Missouri at UCLA (December 28)
This is the Tigers’ final road game before the begin SEC play, and Frank Haith’s club is more than capable of making a splash in their new league. Point guard Phil Pressey is one of the country’s best and a rotation that adds some talented transfers (Keion Bell and Alex Oriakhi being two) should have good chemistry thanks to a summer trip to Europe. They’ll be tested by the Bruins, who have some talented newcomers of their own to rely on.

15. Michigan State at Miami (November 28)
How good can Miami be? Along with Maryland the Hurricanes have the talent needed to make a jump in the ACC standings. Shane Larkin and Durand Scott can be a handful for opposing teams, and the chance to take on Michigan State at home is something that Jim Larranaga’s program needs to take advantage of (statement game).

16. Tennessee at Georgetown (November 30)
The Volunteers’ struggles before Jarnell Stokes arrived on campus did a number on their NCAA tournament hopes last year, but having he and Jeronne Maymon together for an entire season will make them a contender in the SEC. The Hoyas on the other hand lost a lot from last year’s squad but a talented freshman class and the development of Otto Porter should net them another NCAA tournament appearance.

17. Stanford at NC State (December 18)
Two teams that hope to contend for (if not win) their respective conferences meet in Raleigh a week before Christmas. Mark Gottfried’s Wolfpack reached the Sweet 16 last season and some believe this group is capable of winning the program’s first ACC regular season title since 1989. Stanford on the other hand is looking to build on a Postseason NIT title, and the chance to see talented players such as Chasson Randle (Stanford) and C.J. Leslie (NC State) is one fans shouldn’t pass up.

18. Baylor at Gonzaga (December 28)
If there’s one thing people should give credit to Scott Drew for it’s the willingness to take on high-caliber opponents in hostile environments. Last year the Bears went to Provo where they held off BYU, and they’ll be looking to do the same against Gonzaga at “The Kennel”. Baylor has a talented rotation led by guards Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip, and Gonzaga will counter with a deep group anchored by guard Kevin Pangos and forward Elias Harris.

19. New Mexico at Cincinnati (December 27)
While neither the Lobos nor the Bearcats are considered to be favorites in their respective conferences, both are talented enough to make a run at the Mountain West and Big East titles. Guard play should be good in this one as New Mexico brings Kendall Williams and Tony Snell to the Queen City, where Cashmere Wright and Sean Kilpatrick await.

20. Butler vs. Indiana (December 15)
Part of a doubleheader at Conseco Fieldhouse (Notre Dame/Purdue being the other tilt), a lot will be learned about the Bulldogs on the perimeter. Arkansas transfer Rotnei Clarke moves to the point, and the question is whether or not he can find the proper balance between getting guys their shots and taking a few of his own. Butler’s going to need Clarke to take on both tasks this season, and the duel between he and Jordan Hulls should be fun to watch.

21. Minnesota vs. Duke (November 22)
Trevor Mbakwe is back from the torn ACL that ended his season in 2011-12, and had the now 6th-year senior been healthy there’s a good chance that Tubby Smith’s team would have made the NCAA tournament. He and Rodney Williams lead a Golden Gopher squad that should finish in the top half of the Big Ten (at least), and this quarterfinal game against Duke in the Battle 4 Atlantis is one they can win.

22. BYU vs. Florida State (November 16)
The is one of two games in the Coaches vs. Cancer event at the Barclays Center (don’t miss Notre Dame/Saint Joseph’s either), and if BYU wants to avoid an NCAA seed similar to last year (14-seed) they can use this win on their resume. FSU may have lost Bernard James but Michael Snaer and Ian Miller return, making them a threat in the ACC.

23. North Texas at Saint Louis (December 5)
Tony Benford certainly isn’t ducking challengers in his first season in Denton, as the Mean Green begin their season at Creighton. Does Saint Louis, who is expected to contend in the Atlantic 10, have enough inside to contain All-America candidate Tony Mitchell? Can the Mean Green keep SLU’s guards, led by Kwamain Mitchell, under wraps?

24. Ohio at Massachusetts (December 19)
Ohio’s D.J. Cooper and UMass’ Chaz Williams are two of the best point guards in the country, and they’ll be on the same court in this one. Jim Christian takes over a deep team that reached the Sweet 16 last year, but Derek Kellogg can match the Bobcats man for man with his rotation. This game will have major implications for both teams as the conversations about RPI and SOS intensify later in the year.

25. Saint Mary’s vs. Drexel (November 22)
The favorite in the CAA meets the reigning WCC champion in the quarters of the Anaheim Classic and it’s worthy of being a final. But most importantly viewers should keep an eye on the match-up at point guard, with SMC’s Matthew Dellavedova taking on Drexel’s Frantz Massenat.

Five others: Colorado State at Colorado (December 5), Alabama at VCU (December 15), Wisconsin at Marquette (December 8), Florida vs. Kansas State (December 22 in Kansas City) and Marshall vs. West Virginia (December 5 in Charleston, WV).

Raphielle is also the assistant editor at CollegeHoops.net and can be followed on Twitter at @raphiellej.

If Louisville vacates the 2013 national title, does Michigan win the national title?

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Louisville lost their appeal, meaning that for the first time in college basketball history, a Division I program is going to have to take down a national title banner.

The details are pretty straight-forward: If one of the three enrolled student-athletes or 15 recruits that the were determined by the NCAA to have received “adult entertainment and/or sex acts” from strippers and sex workers played in any game from Dec. 2010 through July 2014, when Louisville staffer Andre McGee was paying for girls to come around Louisville’s Billy Minardi Hall, then that game is to be vacated from the Louisville record books.

That includes 123 regular season games and 15 NCAA tournament wins.

That also includes the 2012 Final Four and the 2013 National Title.

What does that mean? How does a program vacate records and titles?

Well, they can no longer do anything to officially reference winning that title. Banners come down. Record books must be changed. For all intents and purposes, Louisville must never again acknowledge that their run to the national title — which included Kevin Ware breaking his leg in the Elite 8 against Duke, a marvelous comeback in the Final Four against Wichita State and one of the most exciting halves of basketball in NCAA tournament history as Luke Hancock and Spike Albrecht went shot-for-shot — took place.

It doesn’t, however, mean that Michigan, whom Louisville beat in the national title game, won the 2013 National Championship.

This not like the Olympics. A silver medal does not turn to gold when the official winner is ruled a cheat. Michigan still lost that game in the eyes of the NCAA. Louisville did not forfeit the win. They just … also lost.

There is no winner.

Officially speaking, as of today, no one won the 2013 national title.

Louisville’s NCAA appeal denied, 2013 title banner to come down

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The NCAA announced on Tuesday morning that Louisvile’s appeal of NCAA rules violations has been denied.

The penalties are the results of an NCAA investigation into a former assistant coach and member of the basketball team, Andre McGee, providing players and recruits with strippers and sex workers at on-campus parties in Billy Minardi Hall, the Louisville basketball dorm. Louisville, in their appeal, referred to the penalties as “draconian”.

The NCAA did not agree.

“Louisville must vacate men’s basketball records in which student-athletes competed while ineligible during the 2011-12 through 2014-15 academic years,” the NCAA’s statement on Tuesday read.

The most significant and relevant piece of information here is that Louisville’s 2013 National Title will be vacated along with their 2012 trip to the Final Four. In total, Louisville will have to vacate 123 wins, which includes 15 NCAA tournament wins from 2011-2015, the seasons in which players that have retroactively been ruled ineligible played in games.

For the first time in college basketball history, a national title will be wiped from the record books. Michigan, who lost the 2013 national title game, will not be named the national champion.

“From here, we will officially remove the formal recognitions from our facilities,” interim AD Vince Tyra said, “but not from our minds.”

The Cardinals were placed on probation for four years when the initial penalties were handed down in June of 2017. They have also been hit with scholarship reductions and restrictions on their recruiting while being forced to pay back the money they received from conference revenue sharing as a result of the NCAA tournament wins. That number will be around $600,000, the school said in a press conference on Tuesday.

“I cannot say this strongly enough: We believe the NCAA is simply wrong to have made this decision,” interim president Greg Postel said.

These penalties were announced before the NCAA did any investigation into allegations that were made against the program during the FBI’s investigation into corruption in college basketball. That investigation, which determined that an agreement was made between an Adidas executive and a member of the Louisville staff to funnel $100,000 to the family of five-star recruit Brian Bowen, eventually cost Rick Pitino his job.

Pitino has repeatedly denied knowledge of the parties that took place in the dorms. Before this title was vacated, he was the only Division I head coach to lead two different programs to a national title; he won the 1996 title with Kentucky.

Pitino was charged by the NCAA with failure to monitor an employee, one of the four Level I violationsthat the NCAA found in their initial investigation. Louisville contested the NCAA’s findingthat Pitino had “violated NCAA head coach responsibility legislation”. Plausible deniability is no longer a defense for head coaches in the eyes of the NCAA. In an effort to prevent the punishment for violations from being dumped on low-level staff members, the NCAA changed their rules to state that head coaches were at fault for anything that happened in their program under their watch whether the NCAA can prove they knew about it or not.

“By his own admission, the head coach and his assistants did not interact with prospects from 10 p.m. until the next morning,” the NCAA said in their findings. “The panel noted that the head coach essentially placed a peer of the student-athletes in a position of authority over them and visiting prospects, and assumed that all would behave appropriately in an environment that was, for all practical purposes, a basketball dorm.”

“This arrangement played a role in creating a location where the former operations director’s activities went undetected.”

Player Of The Year Power Rankings: Jalen Brunson has overtaken Trae Young

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Jalen Brunson is the National Player of the Year.

At least that’s the way that I see it.

If the season ended today, the award goes to Brunson. As incredible as Trae Young has been and as ridiculous as his efficiency stats and counting numbers are, winning has to matter when it comes to National Player of the Year. It has to matter when it comes to postseason awards. It’s why I campaigned against Ben Simmons being a Player of the Year or first-team all-american. It’s why I said that Markelle Fultz shouldn’t be considered for any preseason Player of the Year or all-american awards.

And it’s why Trae Young, in my mind, is no longer the National Player of the Year frontrunner.

I’ve talked about this a couple of different times before, but the simple fact of the matter is that we rarely see a player that isn’t on a national title favorite win the award. The last time a player that was on a team that wasn’t at least a top four seed that won the award was in 2005 when Utah’s Andrew Bogut was the consensus Player of the Year. Before that? You have to go all the way back to 1988, when Danny Manning and Hersey Hawkins both won three of the six major Player of the Year awards. Manning played on No. 6 seed Kansas, who went on to win the title that year. Hawkins played for No. 9 seed Bradley.

As it stands right now, Oklahoma is 16-11 overall. They’ve lost six in a row after getting mollywhopped at Kansas. They’ve dropped nine of their last 11 games. They’ve lost eight in a row on the road. They are 6-9 in the Big 12. If they go 1-2 in their final three games — which, at this rate, seems like a fairly likely scenario — they could end up missing the NCAA tournament entirely.

Seth Davis made an interesting point about this on a recent CBS broadcast, and one that I think it worth addressing: He said, and I’m summarizing here because I don’t remember the exact quote, that the award is the Player of the Year award and not the Player of the Month award, and I agree to an extent. A couple of bad games shouldn’t impact an entire season’s body of work.

My response to that is that we are talking about more than just a couple of games. Young and Oklahoma have struggled for the last 11 games. That’s more than 40 percent of Oklahoma’s season to date, and there are still three Big 12 games left before the Big 12 tournament kicks off. More importantly, the Big 12 season matters more than non-conference play. Does anyone really care that Young, say, tied the record for assists in a game against Northwestern State when he lost by 30 in the Phog?

Winning is the most important thing that a player can do. In any sport. If you are the star of a team that is not winning games, you are not having as good of a season as the star of a team that is winning games. That is a fundamental belief that I have that will not change.

And Brunson?

He’s having a historically good season from an efficiency perspective on a team that may just set the record for efficiency in the KenPom era. He can dominate a game when he needs to. He can also control a game as a facilitator, getting the ball to the guys that are cooking when he needs to. Case in point: at Xavier. Donte DiVincenzo and Mikal Bridges were on fire, so Brunson made sure they got their touches.

I love Trae Young’s game. I love the way he plays. His struggles down the stretch are not entirely his fault.

But when you are not a threat to win a national title, I do not think that you can be a threat to win National Player of the Year.

Anyway, here is my top ten:

1. JALEN BRUNSON, Villanova
2. DEANDRE AYTON, Arizona
3. TRAE YOUNG, Oklahoma
4. MARVIN BAGLEY III, Duke
5. TREVON BLUIETT, Xavier
6. KEENAN EVANS, Texas Tech
7. KEITA BATES-DIOP, Ohio State
8. JOCK LANDALE, Saint Mary’s
9. DEVONTE’ GRAHAM, Kansas
10. GARY CLARK, Cincinnati

ALSO CONSIDERED: MIKAL BRIDGES, Villanova; MILES BRIDGES, Michigan State; JEVON CARTER, West Virginia; CARSEN EDWARDS, Purdue; AARON HOLIDAY, UCLA; CHANDLER HUTCHISON, Boise State; CALEB MARTIN, Nevada; LUKE MAYE, North Carolina; LANDRY SHAMET, Wichita State

Tumble continues for Oklahoma as No. 8 Kansas cruises to win

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Oklahoma desperately needed a win. Not even necessarily in the classic sense of the term of outscoring your opponent. The Sooners just needed something, anything, positive to build on in a season that’s suddenly crumbling around them.

Unfortunately for Lon Kruger and his team, Allen Fieldhouse is not the place to go when you’re in need of a pick-me-up. It’s a place more suited for realizing your worst nightmares.

Eighth-ranked Kansas eviscerated the Sooners in a 104-74 beatdown that not only exposed Oklahoma’s problems but exacerbated them to the point where the NCAA tournament no longer looks to be assured.

Oh, and it set up a potential Big 12 title game in Lubbock later this week with a 13-year streak on the line, but more on that later.

The headline here is that Oklahoma and the man who set college basketball ablaze, Trae Young, look broken. And maybe beyond repair.

Oklahoma has now lost six in a row, tumbling from burgeoning Final Four contender to potential First Four hopeful. Things are spinning out of control fast.

The person who will draw the bulk of the blame, fair or not, is Young. The freshman from Norman North looked like the college basketball’s answer to Steph Curry while carrying his hometown university to a 12-1 start to the year, leading the country in scoring, assists and jaw-dropping plays and performances. The substance of his game matched the style, which was no small feat for a guy who routinely would splash shots from 35 feet out.

He’s been a bit of a disaster during this six-game slide, however. Young is just 11 of 56 (19.6 percent) from 3-point range and 27 of 57 (47.3 percent) from inside the arc during the losing streak. He’s also turned it over 25 times. He’s still distributing at a high-rate, but that’s not enough to offset his shooting numbers. His teammates don’t score it well enough to pick up the slack. They also can’t create for Young. He’s got to do all of it himself – get looks and dole them out.

Young and Oklahoma’s issue runs deeper than just the makes and misses of their offense, though. The Sooners’ defense has become a massive liability. Kansas took a sledgehammer to it and blasted it to smithereens in front of 16,300 witnesses in Allen Fieldhouse and millions more in their living rooms.

The Jayhawks shot 60.9 percent for the game. They made 16 of 29 of their 3-point attempts. That’s 55.2 percent from deep. Nineteen of their buckets came from layups or dunks and averaged 1.444 points per possession.

It was as if the Sooners weren’t there at all, which actually might have been of some consolation to Kruger because that would at least mean no one could see their baffling lack of effort, cohesiveness and pride on the defensive end. It was really a sight to behold for the rest of us, though.

Young is as big of culprit here as anyone. Yes, he carries an incredible offensive burden with a 39.6 usage rate. No one is expecting him to be Jevon Carter, but he has to offer some resistance some of the time. Against the Jayhawks, he died on screens again and again or simply didn’t even put up a fight too often when guarding the ball.

He’s not alone, however, as the Sooners looked disconnected as a unit. They were simply incapable of even slowing Kansas. The Jayhawks got hot, sure, but Oklahoma can’t write this off as just catching a team on a night they couldn’t miss. The Sooners had as much to do with it as anything.

That’s the area that’s got to get fixed. Young may not be able to put up the absurd numbers he did for long stretches earlier this season, but his talent is so immense that it would be foolish to expect this slump to stay this bad for too much longer. Without a superhuman Young, however, they’ve got to get some stops. Without them, Young may join the ignominious list of Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz as pheoms who failed to make the NCAA tournament.

Now, back to that Big 12 title game in West Texas.

Assuming Texas Tech can get in and out of Stillwater with a win over Oklahoma State – potentially without Keenan Evans – the Red Raiders and Jayhawks will be tied atop the Big 12 with matching 11-4 league records with Kansas making the trip to Lubbock.

The Jayhawks, you may have heard, have won 13 consecutive Big 12 regular season championships. It very well could be decided Saturday if there will be a 14th.

After a two-game hiccup of losses at Texas and Iowa State, Chris Beard’s team won seven-straight before falling to a resurgent Baylor on Saturday. They’re undefeated at home and possess one of the country’s best defenses. They’ve been the biggest threat to Kansas’ streak since they knocked off the Jayhawks in Lawrence in January.

The Jayhawks will go into the game with their best offensive performance of the season. Devonte Graham finally looked like he may be the Big 12’s best player – he certainly bested Young – and Svi Mykhailiuk, LeGerald VIck and Malik Newman looked like the more-than-capable secondary options this Jayhawks team desperately needs. Silvio De Sousa even looked serviceable for the first time, putting up 10 points and six rebounds in 13 minutes. Which is also to say nothing of Udoka Azubuike being one of the Big 12’s toughest matchups.

Kansas is a flawed team, but once again the Jayhawks have put themselves in enviable position and appear to be rounding into tip-top form toward the end of February. It’s their conference, and they’ll have the chance this weekend to keep it that way.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma is just trying to stay out of playing Wednesday in the Big 12 tournament. The Sooners sure could use a win. Of any kind.

Bubble Banter: Oklahoma in danger of missing tournament?

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As we will do every day throughout the rest of the season, here is a look at how college basketball’s bubble teams fared on Saturday.

It’s worth reminding you here that the way winning are labeled have changed this season. Instead of looking at all top 50 wins equally, the selection committee will be using criteria that breaks wins down into four quadrants, using the RPI:

  • Quadrant 1: Home vs. 1-30, Neutral vs. 1-50, Road vs. 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home vs. 31-75, Neutral vs. 51-100, Road vs. 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home vs. 76-160, Neutral vs. 101-200, Road vs. 136-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home vs. 161 plus, Neutral vs. 201 plus, Road vs. 240 plus

The latest NBC Sports Bracketology can be found here.

WINNERS

MIAMI (RPI: 33, KenPom: 43, NBC seed: 8): Miami added a fourth Quadrant 1 win on Monday night by going into South Bend and picking off Notre Dame. The Hurricanes are in the conversation as a bubble team for a two reasons — they have a Quadrant 3 loss to Georgia Tech, and they had lost three in a row entering Monday night. What’s interesting with Miami’s profile is that they don’t really have any elite wins. They beat Middle Tennessee State on a neutral. They won at Virginia Tech, N.C. State and Notre Dame. That’s it. Those are their four Quadrant 1 wins. Their profile is probably strong enough to get them in, but I do think there is a world where they get a lower seed than you might be expecting.

MARYLAND (RPI: 54, KenPom: 41, NBC seed: Out): The Terps, who won at Northwestern tonight, seem to be in the mix on most of the places that I go to read about the bubble, and frankly, I just don’t get it. They do not have a Quadrant 1 win. They are 0-9 against Quadrant 1 opponents. In a year where the NCAA Selection Committee showed us just how much they value quality wins already, I’m not sure that they can build a profile that is strong enough to get a bid unless they beat Michigan on Saturday and win a couple of games against the top of the Big Ten in the Big Ten tournament. They’re at least three wins away in my mind. Like I said, I just don’t see it, but I figured it was worth mentioning here on a slow night.

LOSERS

OKLAHOMA (RPI: 36, KenPom: 40, NBC seed: 8): Just eight days ago, when the NCAA tournament Selection Committee convened to release an early look at the top 16 seeds for the NCAA tournament, Oklahoma was a No. 4 seed. They were one of the top 16 teams, according to the committee, in an event that will need 36 at-large members to complete it. Going from there to the bubble is a long, long fall, and to be frank, I am not sure that the Sooners are on the bubble yet. Hell, they’re still 16-11 overall even after that embarrassing loss at Kansas. They’re still 6-7 against Quadrant 1 opponents without a hint of a bad loss to their name. They’ve still beaten USC in LA. They still won at Wichita. They beat Texas Tech. They beat TCU. Hell, they beat Kansas.

For comparison’s sake, our current last team in is Syracuse. They are 18-9 overall and 3-5 against Quadrant 1 with losses to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.

But we can no longer ignore the fact that this team has hit rock bottom. Tonight was their sixth-straight loss. They have lost seven of eight and nine of 11. They’ve lost eight straight on the road. If the tournament was tomorrow, they would be in the field with some room to spare, but the problem is that there is absolutely no reason for us to assume that they are simply going to be able to get the job done against the teams left on their schedule. It is, admittedly, relatively easy by Big 12 standards — Kansas State, at Baylor, Iowa State — but Big 12 standards are absolutely preposterous.

No one would be surprised if Oklahoma lost two of their last three games — hell, I would be fairly shocked if they found a way to win at Baylor at this point — and if they do happen to lose two of their last three, they’ll enter the Big 12 tournament with a 17-14 record and a 7-11 mark in the league while having to play on the first day of the Big 12 tournament in either the 7-10 or 8-9 game.

If that were to be the case, they would probably have to win two Big 12 games to get to the Big Dance.

Put another way, Oklahoma went from being a No. 4 seed in the first bracket projection to needing to win three games in the next three weeks to avoid having to sweat out Selection Sunday.

It’s crazy how far and fast they’ve fallen.

NOTRE DAME (RPI: 68, KenPom: 33, NBC seed: Next four out): The Fighting Irish are in an interesting spot. Their profile is not exactly worthy of an at-large bid. But they’ve also been decimated by injury. Bonzie Colson is still out with a foot injury. So is D.J. Harvey. Matt Farrell and Rex Pflueger have both missed tie with injuries. If Colson can get healthy before the season ends and the Irish can win a couple games at or near full strength, they will have an interesting case to make. I do, however, think that would require winning two of their last three games. One of those three games is at Virginia, so they have their work cut out for them.