Kentucky’s an ‘overwhelming’ favorite to win it all

Leave a comment

Oddsmakers aren’t the only ones who think Kentucky will roll to the national title. Most computer simulations and some coaches couldn’t agree more.

The Wildcats were the overwhelming result when Jeff Sagarin ran four billion simulations of the remaining games, USA Today reports. (How many results count as “overwhelming” when you run four billion simulations, I don’t know.) Ken Pomeroy estimated Kentucky’s chances of winning it all at 42 percent. Ohio State’s were 34 percent.

But what about a coach’s perspective? St. John’s played Kentucky and Louisville this season and lost to both. What would assistant Tony Chiles say?

“I think Kentucky wins it going away,” Chiles told the N.Y. Times. “They’re just so long and so athletic.”

If the Wildcats played the Buckeyes in Monday’s title game, Mike Colbert of Cantor Gaming in Las Vegas says they’d be a 2-1 favorite. And that might be kind to Ohio State.

From USA Today:

“The biggest buzz that I can remember before this is the UNLV team with Larry Johnson and Stacey Augmon (that beat Duke 103-73 for the title) in 1990,” he said. “That was bigger. There was no chance they were going to lose.

“Quite frankly I think this Kentucky team is a little better. The way Kentucky plays together, they are probably the most unselfish team I’ve seen in quite some time. They literally have five NBA players on the floor at all times, which is unheard of, but the way they play defense and the way they play together … there’s not one selfish player on the court. … I’d be very, very surprised if they get beat. I have to give (John) Calipari credit. This has been his best coaching job by a mile.”

It’s interesting that Colbert used 1990 UNLV as an example when nearly every college basketball fan and pundit would place the 1991 team as the superior Rebels squad.

But then, the fate of that ’91 squad is pretty well known. I’d say that’s the answer.

You also can follow me on Twitter @MikeMillerNBC.

Michigan State playing zone? It’s possible

Tom Izzo
Associated Press
Leave a comment

Throughout Tom Izzo’s tenure at Michigan State the team’s half-court man-to-man defense has been a staple, and the Spartans have generally proven difficult to have a high rate of offensive success against. The reliance on that defense is why Izzo’s conversations earlier this summer about using some token full-court pressure due to the shortening of the shot clock caught some people off-guard.

According to the Detroit Free Press there’s another wrinkle the Spartans may use, and it’s likely that this wrinkle will show up more often than the full-court press. During Friday’s opening practice the Spartans worked on a 2-3 zone, and Izzo wants his assistants to make sure the team works on the defense consistently throughout the season.

That’s also why zone in general isn’t going to get heavy play at MSU, but having it as a tool could be beneficial — especially in games with touch fouls on the perimeter called in droves.

“I told (my assistant coaches): ‘You hold me accountable to working on it every day some’ … I have a tendency to drift off on that, and I don’t want to drift off on it,” Izzo said of the 2-3 zone. “But we will be, rest assured, a 90-some percent man-to-man team still and hopefully take some of those principles to zone.”

As noted in the story one of the risks in using pressure is allowing quality shots, which is why it’s unlikely that Michigan State will go to it. But even with Izzo vowing that his team will work on the zone, that doesn’t mean they’ll be playing it as often as Syracuse does.

Man-to-man has been Michigan State’s staple and it will continue to be. But it doesn’t hurt to look for other ways to keep opponents from getting the looks they want, especially if teams have five fewer seconds to find those shots.

Virginia used 3-on-3 to adjust to new shot clock

Malcolm Brogdon
Associated Press
Leave a comment

When the college basketball rules committee made the decision to trim the shot clock down to 30 second from 35, one reason for the switch was the desire to improve offensive production. With offensive numbers at their lowest point in years, proponents of the move see the shot clock change as a necessary move if scoring is to improve.

Whether or not that winds up being the case will be seen throughout the upcoming season, but teams are still having to make adjustments during the preseason.

Virginia, which has played at a snail’s pace (and with great success, mind you) in recent years, made some adjustments to their summer work in anticipation of playing with a 30-second shot clock. One adjustment was more games of 3-on-3 with a 15-second shot clock, which forced all involved to be more decisive in their offensive decision-making.

While the pack-line defense will always be a staple of Tony Bennett’s teams, the feeling in Charlottesville is that they’ve got the offensive firepower needed to both play faster and be more efficient offensively than they were in 2014-15 (29th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy). One of the players who will lead the way is senior guard Malcolm Brogdon, who led the team in scoring and was a first team All-ACC selection, and he discussed the team’s outlook with Mike Barber of the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

And even though Anderson’s highlight-reel shot blocking was the thing that frequently fueled fast-breaks for U.Va. last season, Brogdon and [Anthony] Gill said they expect this year’s team to actually push the tempo even more.

“I think we’re going to be a team that gets out and runs more,” Brogdon said. “I think we’ll have three guards on the floor, most of the time, will be able to handle the ball as a point guard and get out in transition. I think we’ll play a lot faster.”

Brogdon and Gill are two of the team’s three returning starters with point guard London Perrantes being the other, and the Cavaliers also return most of their reserves from last year’s rotation. That experience will help them on both ends of the floor as they prepare for a run at a third straight ACC regular season title. And in theory it also allows them to extend themselves a bit more offensively than they did a season ago.