Being an All-American just isn’t what it used to be. At least for predicting NBA stardom.
This interesting post by Neil Paine over at Basketball Prospectus lists the First- or Second-Team All-NBA players and their college status since 1963 and finds the last few years to be awfully bleak.
Only Kevin Durant (2007), Chris Paul (‘05) and Dwyane Wade (’03) did the All-American superstardom double since 1998. Only 12 All-Americans have been NBA All-Stars since 2000.
The college stars and pro stars don’t always align – different styles, etc – but that still seems odd. Blake Griffin’ll join the superstar list soon (I’d think) and John Wall could do the same if the Wizards ever filled the roster with a semblance of competent players, but still.
Just three superstars since ’00? And 16 guys who are NBA scrubs and 11 who didn’t even play? That’s nuts. Have there been that many upperclassmen who worked their way onto the All-American lists in that span who couldn’t cut it in the NBA?
Among this year’s crop of college basketball All-Americans – Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, Draymond Green and Doug McDermott are the four shoe-ins – Davis is the only one who seems to fit the superstar bill. Robinson could get there, but he’ll need a more consistent jumper. I’d guess Green and McDermott need to find the right fits to be regular players.
It’s a strange transition from college to pro. Even for the stars.
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