NCAA Basketball Tournament - Lehigh v Duke

Duke loss shows how quickly tournament performance can shift perceptions

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The NCAA Tournament is great at distorting reality.

While it’s the greatest playoff system in all of American sports, you must at least concede that the best team does not always cut down the nets.

To cap off a wild early-evening slate of games, Duke suffered what some may call the most embarrassing and unexpected loss in the history of the Coach K’s tenure in Durham.

A country rejoiced as C.J McCulloum led Lehigh through to the next round,  pulling off an improbable win that embodies what makes this tournament so unique.

But with the loss, one question must be raised:

How different, really, was this Duke team from many of their recent squads? More specifically, was this team really any less talented than the 2010 NCAA Championship winning Blue Devils team?

On the surface, the obvious answer is that, yes, the 2010 Blue Devils were a far better team.

They won the National Championship, so this should be a no brainer!

Yes, I understand that, but depending on how you interpret “better” and “team” in this context is important, so let’s  run some numbers on the two clubs so we can maybe get some good perspective here.

In 2010 the Blue Devils entered the post-season at 26-5 overall, 13-3 in the ACC.

The 2012 Blue Devils? They were 26-6, and also 13-3 in conference play.

Additionally, both teams went 7-4 in the regular season against the RPI top 50.

Basically, these teams had accomplished virtually the same. They had roughly the same number of good wins and bad losses, and everyone in the world hated them equally.

The similarities continue in some statistical areas as well.

This year’s Blue Devils team actually shot the ball better from the floor, with an 53 eFG percentage, a  few points better than in 2010 when they shot 50.5 percent.

Why?

While the 2010 team shot a bit better from the three-point line, you’d be surprised to know that this year’s team actually was better from inside the arc, with a 51 2pt percentage, compared to 47 percent in 2010. You can thank Austin Rivers’ dribble penetration for that.

Overall, the Blue Devils 2010 team were the game’s best in adjusted-offensive efficiency (123.5), which was a KenPom.com stat Duke apologists desperately held on to in March, arguing that their team was worthy of a number one seed based primarily on this figure.

Good for eighth best this season, the 2012 Blue Devils had an AdjO rating of 117, which actually ranks higher than top seeds Syracuse and North Carolina.

Defensively, things start to break up a bit, but not to the point where you could confidently say that this year’s Duke team should be placed on upset alert against a 15-seed. 2012 Duke allowed exactly one point-per-possession on 43.3 FG percentage, while 2010 Duke just 0.92 on 40 percent. Both teams were average and nearly identical in defensive rebounding.

Even without the numbers, I’m sure you’ve gathered that the difference between the 2010 Duke Blue Devils and 2012 Duke Blue Devils is rather negligible, or about 50 percent C.J McCollum and 50 percent the fate of a number of other championship contending teams.

Remember that in 2010 the Blue Devils peeved a number of people by grabbing the fourth number one seed. Nobody believed they were deserving,  but then Kansas got Ali Farokhmanesh’ed by Northern Iowa, Butler came out of the West, and West Virginia upset Kentucky in the Elite Eight.

Suddenly, the Blue Devils were the only one-seed in the Final Four, and it became their tournament to lose. They didn’t really have a star (although Kyle Singler assumed that role as best he could), played with a point-guard by committee (remember Jon Scheyer), and relied on a 7-0 Brian Zoubek to anchor the middle (a career four-point, five-rebound guy).

If anything, this year’s Duke Blue Devils team had more weapons, and were built at least get out of the first weekend. Guard oriented with a freshman that could create his own shot if the rest of the team was struggling, Rivers, in theory, could single-handedly save his team offensively when needed.

Last night Rivers tied for a team high 19-points. He shot only 5-14 from the floor, but it’s this type of player the Blue Devils did not have in 2010. They were far more reliant on offensive execution – a sustainable plan to win a National Championship, but oddly what can leave you susceptible to an early round exit if shots simply are not falling or match-ups do not work in your favor.

If Duke were to get past Lehigh, a trip to the South Regional final was perfectly within reach. Assuming they would meet Kentucky, it’s likely the run would end in Atlanta for this team, but even then we’d be talking about how respectable the Blue Devils season was, one that ended in only their second trip to the Elite Eight in seven years.

The tournament can be cruel and terrible for historical perspective, but these are the breaks in a field of 68.

Follow Nick Fasulo on Twitter @billyedelinSBN

Oregon’s Dillon Brooks is ‘in a walking boot’, status still unclear

EUGENE, OR - DECEMBER 11: Dillon Brooks #24 of the Oregon Ducks shoots the ball over Ar'Mond Davis #22 of the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first half of the game at Matthew Knight Arena on December 11, 2016 in Eugene, Oregon.  (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
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Oregon released a statement on Friday afternoon that said star forward Dillon Brooks had seen doctors and was in a walking boot, but gave no further update on his condition.

Brooks suffered what the program termed a “lower leg injury” on Thursday night against Cal. The injury was to his left leg – on replay, it looked like he rolled his ankle – which is concerning because his left foot is the foot that he injured over the summer, which caused him to miss the first three games of the season.

“He’ll be evaluated in the next couple of days and see where he’s at,” head coach Dana Altman said after Thursday’s game.

Allonzo Trier cleared to play vs. UCLA

Arizona head coach Sean Miller talks with guard Allonzo Trier (11) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Northwestern State in Tucson, Ariz., Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015. (Mamta Popat/Arizona Daily Star via AP)  ALL LOCAL TELEVISION OUT; PAC-12 OUT; MANDATORY CREDIT; GREEN VALLEY NEWS OUT
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Allonzo Trier’s most recent drug test came back negative, meaning that the leading returning scorer for the Wildcats will be eligible to play on Saturday when Arizona plays a visit to UCLA.

Trier had been suspended for the first 19 games of the season following a positive test for a performance-enhancing drug. He appealed to the NCAA and actually won, claiming that he unknowingly ingested the substance after someone he trusted gave him a product to help him recover from a car accident during the offseason.

The NCAA’s stipulation, however, was that he could not play until the PED had cleared his system.

Trier averaged 14.8 points last season for Arizona. He’ll join a back court that already includes Kadeem Allen, Rawle Alkins and Kobi Simmons, as well as Kadeem Allen and Parker Jackson-Cartwright. Along with Lauri Markkanen, who has the look of a lottery pick, Trier was expected to be Arizona’s best player this season. While he has not been allowed to play this year, Trier has been practicing and traveling with the team. It may take him a while to work his way back into game shape and into the flow of the team, but it won’t be because he’s rusty.

The Wildcats are currently 17-2 on the year and 6-0 in the Pac-12. They play No. 3 UCLA in Pauley Pavilion on Saturday. The Bruins are a game out of first place in the conference standings.

Myles Davis leaves Xavier program

Myles Davis
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Myles Davis announced in a post on twitter on Friday evening that he will be leaving the Xavier basketball team.

“I would like to thank everyone and Xavier for allowing me to get my degree but my family and I have decided that it is time for me to move on from Xavier and start a new chapter in my life,” Davis wrote in the statement. “Wish my teammates the best of luck the rest of the season.”

Davis averaged 10.8 points and 4.1 assists while shooting 38.1 percent from three as a junior in 2015-16, and his skill set would have filled a void that the Musketeers are currently missing on their roster.

But he was suspended for the first 15 games of the regular season following a pair of incidents involving an ex-girlfriend over the summer, and since being reinstated to the team just three games ago, Davis has averaged 11 minutes, scored just two points and shot 0-for-8 from the field and 0-for-6 from three.

O.G. Anunoby’s knee injury is season-ending

BLOOMINGTON, IN - DECEMBER 28:  OG Anunoby #3 of the Indiana Hoosiers attempts a shot in the first half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Assembly Hall on December 28, 2016 in Bloomington, Indiana. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
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Yesterday, Indiana released a statement updating the status of O.G. Anunoby, their star forward and a potential lottery pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.

He was out indefinitely with a knee injury.

On Friday, Indiana’s worst fears were confirmed.

“It has been determined that O.G. Anunoby will undergo surgery on his right knee and will miss the remainder of the season,” head coach Tom Crean said in a statement. “He is expected to make a complete recovery. For a young man, O.G. has a very strong faith and a courageous spirit. We are going to do everything as a basketball family to help him recover and rehabilitate from this unfortunate situation.”

The diagnosis isn’t surprising. Anunoby suffered a non-contact knee injury when he came to a jump-stop, the kind of play that always seems to result in a torn ACL. The loss is a major one for an Indiana team that is already struggling to defend. Anunoby is one of the best and most versatile defenders in college basketball, and it’s a hole the 13-6 Hoosiers, who are already 3-3 in the Big Ten, may not be able to fill.

Weekend Preview: The four biggest story lines to follow

LAS VEGAS, NV - NOVEMBER 25:  Head coach Greg McDermott of the Creighton Bluejays talks with Maurice Watson Jr. #10 during the team's game against the Massachusetts Minutemen during the championship game of the Men Who Speak Up Main Event basketball tournament at MGM Grand Garden Arena on November 25, 2015 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Creighton won 97-76.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
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FIVE STORY LINES TO FOLLOW

1. What will Creighton do at the point guard spot?: Suddenly, the most important story line in the Big East has become the future of this Creighton basketball team, and we’ll get our first glimpse of it against Marquette in Omaha on Saturday.

The Bluejays lost Mo Watson Jr., their starting point guard and an all-american this season, to a torn ACL on Monday. Watson was leading the nation in assists this season. He was the engine that made Creighton’s high-powered offense run. He was to the Bluejays what Lonzo Ball is to UCLA.

Greg McDermott is one of the more underrated coaches in college basketball, but this is going to be a massive overhaul for him. Their offensive attack was built around Watson’s abilities – the way he can push the ball in transition, the way he can get into the lane, the way he can find their myriad of 45 percent three-point shooters – and there isn’t another guy on the roster that can do those things.

There is still plenty of talent on that Creighton roster, but they’ll be playing the rest of the season without the head of their snake.

RELATED: Weekend picks against the spread

2. Indiana vs. Michigan State is critical, just not in the way we thought it would be: The Hoosiers and the Spartans were supposed to be two of the best teams in the Big Ten this season, but that’s not the way that the year has played out. The two teams have a combined 13 losses, while Indiana is a buzzer-beater from James Blackmon Jr. away from being 2-4 in the Big Ten.

The Spartans look like they have started to right the ship. They are just a game out of first place in the Big Ten standings, their freshmen are starting to play like they’re more than just freshmen and Miles Bridges is back from the ankle injury that cost him a few weeks. Indiana, on the other hand, is at a crossroads in their season. O.G. Anunoby appears to be out for a significant amount of time with a knee injury, and he is the one guy on that roster that can operate as a defensive stopper and something of a glue-guy. Last year, when Blackmon went down with a knee injury, Indiana’s season could have unraveled. Instead, Yogi Ferrell carried them to a Big Ten regular season title.

So while the Spartans will be playing a game they cannot afford to lose if they want to be Big Ten champs, Indiana is going to be trying to prove that 2016-17 isn’t going to be a total loss.

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3. Miami at No. 18 Duke, Sat. 8:15 p.m. (ESPN): Duke is going to be the biggest story line in the sport for the foreseeable future. Part of it is because they are Duke. They are always a massive story. But the more pressing issue is that this team has turned into the most fascinating team I can remember in college basketball. On paper, they are more talented than the 2015 Kentucky, the one that went 38-1. On the floor, they’re a mess. Harry Giles III is still a shell of himself, understandably so. Marques Bolden has been so bad that Chase Jeter and Javin DeLaurier have usurped his spot in the rotation. Jayson Tatum hasn’t adjusted to the college level the way we expected him to, and the only person in the program that seems to realize Luke Kennard is the best player on the team is Luke Kennard.

The leader on the bench, Coach K, is out recovering from back surgery. The leader on the floor, Amile Jefferson, is out with a foot injury.

And then there is Grayson Allen, who … well … you know. He keeps tripping people, and even when he doesn’t, we have successfully lumped him into some controversy on the floor for three straight games. Oh, and he’s the Preseason Player of the Year that just so happens to be playing out of position because the Blue Devils don’t have a point guard.

In 2015, when Duke had an identity crisis in January, they were shredded at home by Miami, losing by 16 points and having their season effectively ended by the public at large. They figured it out that year and won a national title. They’re at a similar crossroads this weekend. Is this when they start to turn things around?

4. First place battles in the ACC, Pac-12 and the SEC: There are a trio of headline-grabbing games this weekend featuring league leaders. No. 12 Louisville travels to No. 10 Florida State, who is tied for first in the ACC, a game ahead of the Cardinals. No. 14 Arizona, who it tied with Oregon for the top spot in the Pac-12 standings, treks to Pauley Pavilion to pay a visit to No. 3 UCLA, who is a game out of first. And finally, No. 5 Kentucky hosts No. 24 South Carolina, the last two undefeated teams in the SEC.

Three terrific games. Three terrific breakdowns right here.