Bubble Banter: 29 teams vying for roughly 12 spots

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Conference tournament action on Thursday and Friday could have a huge impact on who’s in and who’s out when the brackets are revealed this Sunday.  New teams involved in the anxious waiting game include Seton Hall and West Virginia.  Both lost second round tourney games on Wednesday.  For teams like South Florida, Northwestern, Dayton, Xavier, St. Joseph’s, Texas, and Tennessee, games continue. 

Here’s an updated look at the bubble through Wednesday night’s games.

Bubble Banter highlights the teams we believe are on the NCAA Bubble. If a team isn’t listed, they aren’t a bubble team at the time of the update. RPI and SOS data is credited to CollegeRPI.comRPI data is for games played through Wednesday, March 7 (10 p.m ET). Records reflect games through Wednesday, March 7.

Total Spots (68): Number of teams in the Field.

Automatic Bids (31): Murray State (OVC), Belmont (A-SUN), UNC-Asheville (Big South), VCU (Colonial), Loyola-Md (MAAC), Creighton (MVC), Harvard (IVY), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), South Dakota State (Summit), Detroit (Horizon), LIU-Brooklyn (NEC), Lehigh (Patriot)

  • Projected Locks (28): Teams who project to have secured a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Should Be In (6): These teams are in solid position to receive an at-large bid.
  • Bubble: (29): Teams projected to be under consideration for at-large selection.
  • Spots Available (12): Estimated number of openings after Automatic Bids, Locks, and Should Be Ins are considered.
  • RPI and SOS: RPI and SOS data are updated through games completed at 10:00 p.m. (ET) on Wednesday, March 7.
  • Teams Leaving the Bubble: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Alabama (Should Be In)
  • Teams Joining the Bubble: TBA
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple | Should Be In: None | Bubble: St. Louis, Dayton, St. Joe’s, Xavier
  • Dayton (20-11 | 9-7) | RPI: 73 | SOS: 69 | – The Flyers have eight Top 100 RPI wins, including victories over Temple, Alabama, and Xavier. The Flyers have also beaten Ole Miss and Minnesota. What Dayton also has is a few troubling losses – particularly defeats to sub-200 RPI teams Miami-OH and Rhode Island. The Flyers face rival Xavier next. That could very well be an elimination game.
  • St. Joe’s (20-12 | 9-7) | RPI: 56 | SOS: 48 | – Like a lot of bubble teams, St. Joe’s entered conference tournament play in need of two or three wins. What St. Joe’s has are good non-conference wins over Creighton and Drexel. They’ve also beaten Temple. St. Joe’s beat Charlotte in its A10 opener and plays St. Bonaventure next. The Hawks need to win that one, too. Then it will depend on what happens around them. It might take another victory over Temple in the semifinals to stay in the Field.
  • St. Louis (23-6 | 12-4) | RPI: 30 | SOS: 95 | – A couple of wins by Xavier, Washington and St. Joe’s would make the Billkens’ profile even better. But it’s hard to consider SLU a lock with an 0-2 mark vs. Top 50 teams. The rest of the A10 bubble teams listed here have at least two. St. Louis also has a loss at Rhode Island (much like Dayton). St. Louis plays the Richmond/La Salle winner in its A-10 opener. It would be a good idea for the Billikens to win that one.
  • Xavier (19-11 | 10-6) | RPI: 58 | SOS: 52 | – Non-conference wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, and Cincinnati continue to help the Muskies. The Musketeers are 6-10 vs. Top 100 but just 2-7 vs. the RPI Top 50. XU will likely face Dayton in its A-10 tournament opener (see above). The loser could be in trouble.
Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Miami-FL, NC State, Virginia
  • Miami-FL (18-11 | 9-7) | RPI: 55 | SOS: 42 | – Miami has a huge win at Duke and a victory over Florida State at home. But they are just 3-10 vs. Top 100 teams. The Canes open ACC tourney play against Georgia Tech. That’s a must win. After that, it would be Florida State. Beating the Seminoles again could be enough to push Miami into the NCAAs.
  • NC State (20-11 | 9-7) | RPI: 53 | SOS: 28 | – The Wolfpack have a season sweep of Miami and a neutral court win over Texas. Decent wins. But an 0-8 mark vs. the Top 50 is troubling – although UT and Miami are in the 50-60 range. NC State has to beat Boston College in its ACC opener. Then it’s a matchup with Virginia. The Wolfpack need at least those two. We’ll re-evaluate the landscape if that happens.
  • Virginia (22-8 | 9-7) | RPI: 42 | SOS: 84 | – Virginia was able to hold off a Maryland rally to avoid a more desperate situation. The Cavaliers will play either NC State or Boston College in their ACC tournament opener. If it’s NC State, one more win should seal it. UVA can probably survive a loss (if it’s not to BC) but it would leave open the possibility for concern if Championship Week gets a little crazy. UVA is 2-5 vs. Top 50 teams and 7-6 vs. the Top 100. Good wins include Michigan and Drexel. The win at Oregon helps too.
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame | Should Be In: Cincinnati | Bubble: Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, West Virginia
  • Connecticut (20-12 | 8-10) | RPI: 33 | SOS: 3 | – Connecticut opened Big East tournament play by beating DePaul and West Virginia. The victory over WVU was the Huskies’ 10th Top 100 RPI victory. That could very well be enough. A victory over Syracuse would clinch it. Non-conference wins include Florida State and Harvard.
  • Seton Hall (20-12 | 8-10) | RPI: 62 | SOS: 44 | – The Pirates ended their season with a loss to Louisville in the second round of the Big East tournament Wednesday night. That’s 3 losses in 4 games – including dropped games to Rutgers and DePaul. Victories over VCU, St. Joe’s and Dayton will help, along with wins over Georgetown, Connecticut, and West Virginia. SHU finished 7-9 vs. the Top 100. That may still keep SHU as one of the 37 best at-large teams, but it will be a long wait until Selection Sunday.
  • South Florida (19-12 | 12-6) | RPI: 44 | SOS: 24 | – USF took care of Villanova late Thursday in a low-scoring game at Madison Square Garden. That keeps the Bulls right on the cutline for an NCAA bid. Despite 12 regular-season Big East wins, only the victory at Louisville was a Top 50 RPI opponent, and USF is 1-8 against that mark. They do have 6 Top 100 wins including Seton Hall and Cincinnati at home. Tonight’s matchup with Notre Dame could be very important to USF’s at-large chances.
  • West Virginia (19-13 | 9-9) | RPI: 51 | SOS: 14 | – The Mountaineers fell in overtime Wednesday to Connecticut. Now the wait begins. With victories over Kansas State and Miami-Fla outside the conference, the Mountaineers may still have an inside track to a bid. They finised 9-11 vs. Top 100 teams and beat Georgetown, Cincinnati and South Florida in the Big East. They could still be vulnerable if bids get squeezed, however. WVU was beaten twice by Connecticut and lost its only game with Seton Hall (away). A top 20 SOS will help. WVU had five losses to Top 35 RPI teams by a total of 11 points.
BIG 10
Locks: Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin | Should Be In: Purdue | Bubble: Northwestern
  • Northwestern (18-12 | 8-10) | RPI: 47 | SOS: 13 | – The Wildcats did everything right to close the season except for a 2-point loss to Ohio State. Those types of close losses will help the Wildcats, but at some point, winning games still counts, and a 1-10 mark vs. Top 50 teams stands out in the wrong way – same as a 5-12 mark vs. Top 100 teams. NW has a marquee win over Michigan State and a bubble win over Seton Hall. The Wildcats open with play in Indianapolis against Minnesota. Win, and it’s a matchup with Michigan. Northwestern probably needs both.
BIG 12
Locks: Baylor, Kansas, Missouri | Should Be In: Kansas State, Iowa State | Bubble: Texas
  • Texas (19-12 | 9-9) | RPI: 52 | SOS: 21 | – The Longhorns enter Big 12 tournament play squarely on the bubble. Good wins include Temple, Iowa State, and Kansas State at home. Texas is just 4-7 on the road and 4-10 vs. Top 100 teams (3-9 vs. Top 50). A loss at Oregon State is the low mark. Texas opens with Iowa State and needs to beat the Cyclones. A win would set up a likely matchup with Missouri.
Locks: Memphis | Should Be In: Southern Mississippi | Bubble: Central Florida
  • Central Florida (19-9 |10-6) | RPI: 61 | SOS: 89 | – The Knights open C-USA tournament play against UAB. UCF has to win that one as it would set up a game with Memphis. The Knights need to beat the Tigers a second time. UCF is just 2-4 vs. Top 50 teams and 3-6 vs the Top 100. Those numbers are considerably lower than some other bubble teams. Bad losses include Rice and UL-Lafayette.
Locks: Wichita State, Creighton | Should Be In: None | Bubble: None
  • Creighton won the automatic bid and ensured that the MVC will be a two-bid league.
Locks: UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Colorado State
  • Colorado State (18-10 | 8-6) | RPI: 21 | SOS: 8 | – The Rams have beaten UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico at home, and their power numbers are very strong, if not slightly inflated. The concerns are a 3-9 road record – CSU’s best road win is UTEP (No. 158) – and nothing out of conference other than a win over Montana. Overall, the Rams have 8 top 100 wins. CSU opens Mountain West tournament play against TCU. That win might be enough. Assuming they play SDSU in the semis, two wins would lock up a bid. A quick loss could leave the door open for trouble if bids get squeezed.
PAC 12
Locks: None | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Arizona, California, Oregon, Washington
  • Arizona (21-10 | 12-6) | RPI: 80 | SOS: 119 | – The Wildcats ended their season with a horrible loss at Arizona State. Their at-large hopes were shaky before (1-4 vs. Top 50), and Arizona accomplished little outside the Pac-10. UA has to reach the Pac-12 title game to have any serious consideration.
  • California (23-8 | 13-5) | RPI: 37 | SOS: 93 | – Cal continues to have the best at-large resume of the Pac-12 group thanks to a sweep of Oregon and a win at Washington in the only meeting between the two. But a loss to Stanford kept the Bears behind Washington in the final standings. Cal is 7-6 vs the Top 100. The Bears will likely see Stanford again in their first Pac-12 tournament game. They probably can’t afford another loss to the Cardinal.
  • Oregon (22-8 | 13-5) | RPI: 49 | SOS: 91 | – The Ducks have won 6 of 7 games but failed to win a game against a Top 50 RPI opponent. About all Oregon has to offer is a split with Washington, as the Ducks were swept by Cal. A victory at Nebraska is Oregon’s top out-of-conference victory. The Ducks will likely open Pac-12 tournament play against Colorado, but they need to reach the title game to stay in the discussion.
  • Washington (21-9 | 14-4) | RPI: 54 | SOS: 83 | – After a loss at UCLA, Washington backed into a Pac-12 regular season title when Cal lost at Stanford. If the Huskies don’t win the league’s automatic bid we’ll learn soon enough how the Committee values a Pac-12 title. Washington is 1-6 vs. Top 50 teams and just 4-8 vs the Top 100. They split with Oregon, swept Arizona and lost their only game with Cal. The Huskies will open Pac-12 play with either Washington State or Oregon State. A loss could really hurt. Reaching the title game would be advised.
Locks: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt | Should Be In: Alabama | Bubble: Mississippi State, Tennessee
  • Mississippi State (21-10 | 8-8) | RPI: 65 | SOS: 66 | – The Bulldogs escaped South Carolina and beat Arkansas to close the regular season with two important wins. With 8 Top 100 wins (8-8), and a non-conference win over West Virginia, MSU survived a five-game swoon in February. The Bulldogs open SEC tournament play against Georgia. It would be a good idea to win that one. It might take a win over Vandy to feel safe.
  • Tennessee (17-13 | 10-6) | RPI: 75 | SOS: 32 | – The Volunteers actually earned the two-seed at the SEC tournament this week in New Orleans. How the Committee evaluates the arrival of Jarnell Stokes in early January will be a major factor for the Vols. They are clearly a better team with him, and three of their bad losses came before he arrived. UT is 10-5 with Stokes and has beaten Florida twice, Vanderbilt, and Connecticut. Those are four wins few bubble teams have. Tennessee gets the Auburn/Ole Miss winner in Game 1. Two more wins could be enough depending on what else happens.
Locks: St. Mary’s, Gonzaga | Should Be In: None | Bubble: BYU
  • BYU (23-8 | 12-4) | RPI: 46 | SOS: 94 | – BYU failed in its attempt to beat Gonzaga a second time and finished 1-4 vs the Zags and St. Mary’s. If the Cougars miss the NCAAs that will be one reason why. Their best non-conference victories are Nevada and Oregon. Good wins, but perhaps not enough to make an NCAA bid hold up. BYU is a team that could easily be squeezed if bids get tight. Their resume is complete. It will be a long wait until Selection Sunday.
Locks: None | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Drexel, Harvard, Iona, Long Beach State, Middle Tennessee State, Nevada, Oral Roberts
  • Drexel (27-6 | 16-2) | RPI: 67 | SOS: 209 |The Dragons may prove to be the ultimate “eye test” team for this year’s Selection Committee. Drexel had won 19 straight games before losing in the CAA championship to VCU. They were also the outright regular-season champions of the Colonial. Strictly by the numbers, Drexel finished 1-2 vs. Top 50 teams and just 4-3 against the Top 100. While they lost to St. Joseph’s and Virginia, Drexel beat Cleveland State by 20 on the road. All the Dragons can do now is wait and hope a few other things fall their way.
  • Iona (25-7 | 15-3) | RPI: 40 | SOS: 144 | – The Gaels ended their season by losing to Fairfield in the MAAC semifinals. Now, it’s a long wait until Selection Sunday. Iona has to hope that wins over Nevada and St. Joseph’s hold up and that a few things go their way. The Gaels finished 1-1 vs. the Top 50 and 5-3 vs. the Top 100. Losses to sub-200 teams Siena and Hofstra may ultimately doom Iona to the NIT.
  • Long Beach State (20-8 | 15-1) | RPI: 35 | SOS: 103 | – The 49ers nearly completed a perfect Big West season. And while early wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier help, they aren’t as strong as once thought. LBSU played the No. 1 non-conference schedule but went 0-6 vs. Top 50 teams and just 2-7 vs. the Top 100. Several close losses will help, but how much? Long Beach opens Big West tournament play against UC Davis.
  • Middle Tennesse State (24-6 | 14-2) | RPI: 57 | SOS: 183 | – The Blue Raiders’ chances are very slim after losing in the Quarterfinals of the Sun Belt tournament. Their best wins are Ole Miss, Akron and Belmont. But they ended the season with back-to-back losses to Western Kentucky and Arkansas State (both sub-200 teams). MTSU ended 0-1 vs. Top 50 teams.
  • Nevada (23-5 | 13-1) | RPI: 45 | SOS: 146 | – Having lost its BracketBusters game at Iona and then watching Iona fall early in the MAAC tournament, Nevada’s at-large chances are growing slim. What the Wolfpack do have is a win over Washington. Nevada has to reach the WAC title game to have any chance to stay in the at-large picture.
  • Oral Roberts (27-6 | 17-1) | RPI: 50 | SOS: 189 | – ORU beat Xavier, Missouri State, and Akron (BracketBusters) in non-conference play, although XU was without several players. But a loss to Western Illinois in the league tournament semis puts a damper on the Eagles’ at-large hopes. They finished 0-2 vs. Top 50 teams and just 3-3 against the Top 100. ORU has to hope a dominate season in the Summit is enough.

No. 14 Cal goes 0-2 in Las Vegas Invitational

Jaylen Brown
AP Photo/Ben Margot
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After midnight on the east coast on Thanksgiving, No. 14 Cal blew a 15 point second half lead against San Diego State, allowing the Aztecs to use a 30-6 run to put away the game and advance to the final of the Las Vegas Invitational. That’s the same San Diego State team had scored 43 points in a loss to Arkansas-Little Rock last week.

Not 24 hours later, the Golden Bears were shredded defensively by the Richmond Spiders, losing 94-90 in the consolation game of a four-team tournament they were considered to be the heavy favorite in.

It’s a disappointing two-game stretch for Cal, who entered the season as a Pac-12 favorite and had looked the part for the first four games of the season.

And the issue appears to be on the defensive end of the floor.

Richmond is a good Atlantic 10 team. Terry Allen and Marshall Wood are high-major big men, Shawn’Dre Jones is a jitterbug at the point and Chris Mooney runs a Princeton-esque system that is very difficult to prepare for without a day in-between games. So it’s not really surprising that the Spiders gave Cal a fight.

But 94 points?

On the heels of giving up 44 points in the second half against the offensively-challenged Aztecs?

That’s a problem, one that I’m sure that Cuonzo Martin is going to address this week in practice. Martin has managed to put together a roster that is build for small-ball, with four talented perimeter players surrounding a first round pick in the post. But that’s not the style that he’s known for. Martin played his college ball at Purdue in the Gene Keady days. He cut his teeth as a head coach at Missouri State in the Missouri Valley. His team’s at Tennessee were known for being tough and physical defensively.

That’s how Martin coaches, which is part of the reason Cal had such hype entering the year.

The talents of Tyrone Wallace, Jaylen Brown, Ivan Rabb, Jabari Bird and Jordan Mathews on a team with a coach that gets teams to defend the way Martin does? It’s no surprise that pundits would be optimistic.

But as of now, they have some work to do defensively if they want to live up to that hype.

Tyler Ulis injured as No. 1 Kentucky beats South Florida

Tyler Ulis, Ky Howard
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MIAMI (AP) Jamal Murray had 21 points and No. 1 Kentucky scored the final 15 points of the first half on the way to beating South Florida 84-63 in the HoopHall Miami Invitational on Friday.

Skal Labissiere added 17 points for the Wildcats (6-0), who led by as many as 31. Charles Matthews scored 11 points and Isaiah Briscoe finished with seven assists for Kentucky, now a winner of 37 consecutive regular-season games and 39 in a row against unranked opponents.

Chris Perry scored 14 points for USF (1-5), which has lost 18 consecutive games against teams ranked in the Top 25. Jaleel Cousins added 12 points on 5-for-6 shooting, and Jahmal McMurray scored 11 points for the Bulls.

Kentucky played the second half without starting guard Tyler Ulis, who departed with a right elbow injury after getting hurt while fighting for a ball loose on the floor.

Kentucky announced after the game that the injury was a hyperextension of the elbow and that he will be day-to-day.

The Bulls were within 27-21 with 6 minutes left in the first half after McMurray banked in a 3-pointer only a few feet away from where John Calipari was standing, and the look of anguish on the Kentucky coach’s face was clear.

It didn’t last long.

The Wildcats scored on seven of their next nine possessions and the game was over by halftime, Kentucky going into the break with a 42-21 lead.

It was a reunion for plenty of people on both benches. Calipari squared off with his former assistant Orlando Antigua, now in his second year leading USF. Antigua’s staff includes another former Calipari assistant in Rod Strickland, plus former Kentucky basketball staff members Mike Malone and Dominic Lombardi.

So the staffs have plenty of familiarity. On the court, there was plenty of disparity. Kentucky finished with a commanding 23-6 edge in points off turnovers and finished with 16 assists to the Bulls’ six.