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Bubble Banter: UConn, Miss. St., Northwestern badly need wins

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The NCAA tournament bubble isn’t necessarily any weaker, but it certainly isn’t shrinking.  Games this weekend should help clear up a few spots – although it hasn’t happened yet.  Right now, there are 25 teams listed as projected locks, with another seven teams in strong position to claim a bid (Should Be In).  When you add in the 31 automatic qualifers, that leaves us with about 16 spots.  Some of the bubble teams are in stronger position than others.

Bubble Banter highlights the teams we believe are on the NCAA Bubble. If a team isn’t listed, they aren’t a bubble team at the time of the update. RPI and SOS data is credited to CollegeRPI.comRPI data is for games played through Thursday, March 1. Records reflect games through Friday, March 2.

A few quick thoughts about the weekend:

source: AP

  • Connecticut and Mississippi State are the two BCS teams currently in our bracket that most need victories this weekend. Connecticut hosts Pittsburgh and Mississippi State hosts Arkansas.
  • Cincinnati should punch its ticket by winning at Villanova.  A loss would make the Bearcats’ Big East tournament opener more important.
  • Northwestern needs to win its game at Iowa, but that won’t be easy. The Hawkeyes have been a tough out at home.
  • Washington can wrap up a Pac-12 title by winning at UCLA.  That won’t guarantee the Huskies a spot, but it would certainly help.
  • Virginia travels to Maryland with a two-game losing streak.  A loss would drop the Cavaliers to 8-8 in the ACC and make UVA’s opening round ACC tournament game much more intense.

Total Spots (68): Number of teams in the Field.

  • Projected Locks (25): Teams who project to have secured a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Should Be In (7): These teams are in solid position to receive an at-large bid.
  • Bubble: (33): Teams projected to be under consideration for at-large selection.
  • Spots Available (16): Estimated number of openings after Automatic Bids, Locks, and Should Be Ins are considered.
  • RPI and SOS: RPI and SOS data are updated through games on Thursday, March 1
  • Teams Leaving the Bubble: Southern Mississippi (Should Be In), Colorado, LSU (Dropping Off)
  • Teams Joining the Bubble: Virginia, Tennessee
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple | Should Be In: None | Bubble: St. Louis, Dayton, St. Joe’s, Xavier
  • Dayton (18-11 | 8-7) | RPI: 73 | SOS: 58 | – The Flyers have eight Top 100 RPI wins, including victories over Temple, Alabama, and Xavier. The Flyers have also beaten Ole Miss and Minnesota. But after Wednesday’s loss at Richmond, the number of questionable losses is concerning – particularly defeats to both Miami-OH and Rhode Island. Dayton has to beat George Washington before heading to the A10 tournament. Another sub-100 loss could very well end the Flyers’ at-large chances.
  • St. Joe’s (19-12 | 9-7) | RPI: 56 | SOS: 44 | – After beating Temple the Hawks fell in double-overtime to St. Bonaventure. It’s not a horrible loss, but St. Joe’s margin for error is thin because of a 2-5 mark against Top 50 teams, a few questionable losses (American and Charlotte in particular), and an overall growing number of defeats . Beating Creighton continues to help, even though the win was in December. SJU also has a win over Drexel. Next up: the A10 tournament. The Hawks will need a couple of wins at minimum.
  • St. Louis (22-6 | 11-4) | RPI: 30 | SOS: 97 | – The Billkens put together an impressive second-half run to oust Xavier on Tuesday. An 0-2 mark vs. Top 50 teams isn’t something to take lightly, but SLU’s wins over St. Joe’s, Washington, and Xavier are close to that RPI mark. SLU closes with a trip to Duquesne. Taking care of the Dukes and avoiding a bad loss in the A10 opener should be enough.
  • Xavier (18-11 | 9-6) | RPI: 55 | SOS: 43 | – Non-conference wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, and Cincinnati continue to help the Muskies. After leading at halftime, XU fell apart on the road at St. Louis and now face a critical game at home against Charlotte on Saturday. The Musketeers are just 6-10 vs. Top 100 teams and 12-11 vs. the Top 200. A losing mark against the Top 200 has traditionally spelled trouble. Xavier has a history of playing well in the A10 tournament; the Muskies need a similar effort this year.
ACC
Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Miami-FL, NC State, Virginia
  • Miami-FL (17-11 | 8-7) | RPI: 52 | SOS: 32 | – Miami’s loss to NC State Wednesday dropped the Canes to 3-10 vs. Top 100 teams and gave the Wolfpack a season sweep. What Miami has to offer is a huge win at Duke and a home victory over Florida State. Another plus, the Canes don’t have a bad loss, their worst was a close game at Maryland. Miami closes with Boston College at home.
  • NC State (19-11 | 8-7) | RPI: 59 | SOS: 23 | – The Wolfpack are still alive after beating Miami Wednesday, and NC State now owns a season sweep of the Canes. That won’t push them into the NCAAs, but it keeps them in the picture. NC State also has a win over Texas, which could still help. An 0-8 mark vs. Top 50 teams, however, is troubling, and a 5-8 mark vs. the Top 100 is okay at best. If the Wolfpack can win at Virginia Tech this weekend, they’ll be in the discussion entering the ACC tournament.
  • Virginia (21-8 | 8-7) | RPI: 49 | SOS: 83 | – Thursday’s loss to Florida State knocks the Cavaliers onto the bubble. It wasn’t a bad loss (other than losing a lead late), but rather it was a missed opportunity to add a resume-building win. Virginia is only 2-5 vs. Top 50 teams, so the Cavs’ resume isn’t quite as strong as it appears. Wins over Miami-Fla and NC State help, and the Cavs also beat Drexel and LSU. Virginia will probably be okay if it beats Maryland on Sunday. But a loss could make the ACC opener surpringly important.
BIG EAST
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette | Should Be In: Louisville, Notre Dame | Bubble: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, West Virginia
  • Cincinnati (21-9 | 11-6) | RPI: 68 | SOS: 98 | – The Bearcats posted a huge win over Marquette on Wednesday and may now have done enough to reach the NCAAs. UC just needs to avoid a letdown at Villanova and an opening-round loss at the Big East tournament.
  • Connecticut (17-12 | 7-10) | RPI: 36 | SOS: 2 | – Coming off a loss to Providence, the Huskies are inching closer to the wrong side of the bubble. Uconn is 5-7 vs. the Top 50 and 7-10 vs. the Top 100 but has been very inconsistent. Key non-conference victories include Florida State and Harvard. Inside the Big East, UConn has beaten Notre Dame, Seton Hall, West Virginia, and South Florida. UConn closes with Pittsburgh at home. They need to beat the Panthers and then try to win a couple of games in New York.
  • Seton Hall (19-10 | 8-9) | RPI: 47 | SOS: 42 | – The Pirates made their bubble life more difficult by losing a home game to Rutgers last weekend. While SHU is 3-7 vs. the Top 50, they are 8-8 vs. the Top 100. Notable non-conference wins include Dayton, St. Joe’s, and VCU – other teams on the bubble. If SHU loses at DePaul, the Pirates’ may need a couple of wins in New York to breathe easy. Within the league, SHU has beaten UConn, Georgetown and West Virginia.
  • South Florida (18-11 | 12-5) | RPI: 35 | SOS: 19 | – Wednesday’s victory at Louisville was the Bulls’ first marquee-type win and first notable win away from home. USF is just 2-7 vs. the Top 50 (the other win is Seton Hall). Yes, South Florida’s Big East win total is impressive, but the majority of those wins have come against the league’s weaker teams. USF closes with West Virginia at home. Another good win or two would certainly help solidify the Bulls position.
  • West Virginia (18-12 | 8-9) | RPI: 53 | SOS: 13 | – The Mountaineers breezed past DePaul on Tuesday, but have still lost have lost 6 of 9 games. Important victories include Georgetown, Cincinnati, and Kansas State – along with Miami(Fla) and Oral Roberts. Several close losses and a Top 10 schedule will help. The Mountaineers are 8-11 vs. Top 100 teams and nine losses have come to teams in the Top 35 of the RPI. WVU closes at surging South Florida. That could end up being an important game for both teams.
BIG 10
Locks: Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin | Should Be In: Purdue | Bubble: Northwestern
  • Northwestern (17-12 | 7-10) | RPI: 51 | SOS: 10 | – The Wildcats have to be wondering if they’ll ever make the NCAA tournament. Few teams have lost more close games to good teams. Wednesday, Jared Sullinger hit a layup with 3 seconds to go to lift OSU past the Wildcats in Evanston. The problem for NW is that close losses only carry you so far. The Wildcats wind up the Big Ten season at Iowa, which is no easy task. They need that one and probably a couple in the Big Ten tournament to make the Field.
BIG 12
Locks: Baylor, Kansas, Missouri | Should Be In: Kansas State | Bubble: Iowa State, Texas
  • Iowa State (21-9 | 11-6) | RPI: 32 | SOS: 49 | – Iowa State has a season sweep of Kansas State and home wins over Kansas and Texas. Will that be enough? Outside the Big 12, ISU’s best win is probably Iowa. Wednesday’s loss at Missouri was expected, but it still leaves the door open for some concern. The Cyclones host Baylor on Saturday. Win and things look good. A loss would add some pressure to ISU’s Big 12 opener. A 4-7 mark vs. the Top 100 right now isn’t exactly overwhelming.
  • Texas (19-11 | 9-8) | RPI: 54 | SOS: 31 | – The Longhorns pulled off their second escape act in a week by holding off Oklahoma on Wednesday. That sets up a showdown with Kansas this weekend. Texas hasn’t beaten a Top 100 team on the road, so a win doesn’t look promising – which means the Longhorns will likely have to win a couple of Big 12 tournament games to feel good about their chances. Texas is 3-8 vs. Top 50 teams – beating Temple, Iowa State, and Kansas State. Bad losses are to Oklahoma State and Oregon State. They are just 12-11 vs. the Top 200.
CONFERENCE USA
Locks: None | Should Be In: Memphis, Southern Mississippi | Bubble: Central Florida
  • Central Florida (18-9 | 9-6) | RPI: 64 | SOS: 94 | – Memphis ran over the Knights on Tuesday, leaving UCF on life support. They are just 2-5 vs. Top 50 teams and 3-6 vs. the Top 100. The Knights are also just 3-7 on the road. A win over Connecticut isn’t helping that much anymore. UCF finishes with UAB and likely needs a run to the C-USA title game to stay alive for at-large consideration.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Locks: Wichita State | Should Be In: Creighton | Bubble: None
  • Right now the Missouri Valley looks to be a two-bid league with Creighton and Wichita State firmly in the Field of 68. Arch Madness is always unpredictable, so a third bid is certainly possible.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Locks: UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Colorado State
  • Colorado State (16-10 | 6-6) | RPI: 20 | SOS: 4 | – Beating UNLV at home on Wednesday gives CSU wins over the top three Mountain West teams (UNLV, SDSU, New Mexico). That’s good, because while the Rams have played a good schedule, they didn’t post a non-conference NCAA-level win. CSU’s best non-conference wins are Colorado and Montana/Denver. An overall 8-8 mark against the Top 100 is okay, but a 2-9 road record is cause for concern. CSU’s best road win is UTEP (RPI No. 148). They also have losses at Stanford and Boise St. The Rams finish up with a winnable game at Air Force before heading to the MTW tournament.
PAC 12
Locks: None | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Arizona, California, Oregon, Washington
  • Arizona (21-9 | 12-5) | RPI: 69 | SOS: 101 | – Arizona has won 7 of 8 games and remains in the hunt despite some very questionable power numbers (RPI and SOS). Other than a victory at California, the Wildcats have no wins over projected at-large teams right now. Are wins over New Mexico State, Colorado and Valparaiso (Top 100) going to push Arizona into the NCAAs? Probably not. Plus, UA was swept by Washington. Arizona closes with Arizona State. That’s a must win heading into the Pac-12 tournament.
  • California (23-7 | 13-4) | RPI: 37 | SOS: 96 | – While Cal is 6-5 vs. Top 100 teams, they are 0-3 in the Top 50. Cal’s best non-conference win is Weber State or Denver. Blemishes are losses at Oregon State and Washington State. The Bears close at Stanford this weekend. A loss to the Cardinal would put another blemish on the Bears’ resume.
  • Oregon (21-8 | 12-5) | RPI: 44 | SOS: 77 | – The Ducks have won 5 of 6 games after beating Colorado on Thursday. That’s the good news. The issue remains a 1-6 mark vs. Top 50 teams and a paultry 3-7 record against the Top 100. A victory at Nebraska is all the Ducks have outside of conference play. Oregon closes with Utah. A horrible loss to the Utes could knock the Ducks into automatic qualifier status.
  • Washington (21-8 | 14-3) | RPI: 50 | SOS: 85 | – The Huskies’ have won 10 of 12 games and own the outright Pac-12 lead. Washington pounded USC on Thursday and can wrap up a Pac-12 regular season title with a win at UCLA this weekend. UW’s best wins are Arizona (twice) and Oregon at home – both fellow bubble teams. The Huskies are 3-8 against the Top 100 and just 1-6 vs the Top 50. Will a Pac-12 crown be enough for an at-large bid? It might depend on how far the Huskies advance in the Pac-12 tournament.
SEC
Locks: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Alabama, Mississippi State, Tennessee
  • Alabama (20-9 | 9-6) | RPI: 28 | SOS: 16 | – Four straight wins have changed the Tide’s outlook considerably. They close out SEC play with a trip to Ole Miss. Early wins over Wichita State, Purdue and VCU help. The only real downer is a two-point defeat at South Carolina. If there’s a concern, it’s a 2-5 mark vs. Top 50 teams and a 7-8 mark vs. Top 100 teams. Neither record is particularly impressive.
  • Mississippi State (20-10 | 7-8) | RPI: 61 | SOS: 67 | – The Bulldogs survived in OT at South Carolina, but that still leaves MSU with 5 losses in 6 games and in desperate need of a late run. The Bulldogs host Arkansas in a critical game on Saturday. A win probably keeps MSU on the right side of the bubble. A loss, probably not. MSU is 2-4 vs. Top 50 teams and 7-7 vs. the top 100. Both are average at best. The Bulldogs are helped by a win at Vanderbilt, along with wins over Alabama, West Virginia, and Arizona. Questionable losses are to Georgia and Auburn.
  • Tennessee (16-13 | 9-6) | RPI: 80 | SOS: 34 | – Given a 9-6 mark in the SEC, we’ll add Tennessee to the bubble. But the Vols have some significant work to do with 13 losses, including four to sub-100 RPI teams. UT swept Florida and has a win over Connecticut. Those are the highlights. They are just 12-13 vs. the Top 200. The Vols host Vanderbilt on Saturday. They need to win that game to stay in the conversation.
WEST COAST
Locks: St. Mary’s, Gonzaga | Should Be In: None | Bubble: BYU
  • BYU (23-7 | 12-4) | RPI: 45 | SOS: 103 | – BYU opened WCC tournament play against San Diego, but it didn’t help or hurt the Cougars. They are 3-5 against the Top 50 – largely due to late surges that pushed Oregon and Nevada into that category. The issue is that BYU went 1-3 vs. St. Mary’s and Gonzaga, beating Gonzaga at home. It could take another win over the Zags to feel safe. To do that, they need to reach the WCC finals.
BEST OF THE REST
Locks: Murray State | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Drexel, Harvard, Iona, Long Beach State, Middle Tennessee State, Nevada, Oral Roberts, VCU
  • Drexel (25-5 | 16-2) | RPI: 65 | SOS: 235 |The Dragons have an outright CAA regular-season title. How much that helps remains to be seen. Drexel is 0-1 vs. Top 50 teams and 4-2 against the Top 100. The non-conference wins in that category are Cleveland State and Princeton. Also, 14 of Drexels’ wins are against teams ranked 200 or higher in the RPI. Losses to Virginia and St. Joseph’s weren’t particularly close. Drexel needs to reach the CAA title game. It’s hard to believe anything else would be enough.
  • Harvard (24-4 | 11-2) | RPI: 38 | SOS: 171 | – A victory over Columbia on Friday puts the Crimson in the driver’s seat for the Ivy’s automatic bid. Harvard’s last game is at Cornell. If the Crimson were to lose that one, and a playoff, Harvard would have to hope early wins over Florida State, St. Joseph’s, and UCF are enough.
  • Iona (24-6 | 15-3) | RPI: 39 | SOS: 148 | – Beating Nevada in the BracketBusters helped the Gaels’ profile, along with a win over St. Joseph’s. Still, Iona is just 1-1 vs. against the Top 50. A 5-3 mark vs. the Top 100 in pretty good but none are against guaranteed NCAA teams. Losses to Siena and Hofstra – both sub 200 teams – are concerning given the lack of high-level wins. If Iona reaches the MAAC title game, they’ll be in the at-large discussion. An early tourney loss would make it much more questionable.
  • Long Beach State (20-7 | 15-0) | RPI: 34 | SOS: 111 | – The 49ers will try to complete a perfect Big West season Saturday at CS-Fullerton. LBSU’s top-rated non-conference schedule is well documented, and the 49ers’ worst loss is at Montana (RPI No. 83) in November. The issues are an 0-6 mark vs the Top 50 and a 2-7 mark vs. the Top 100. Those sort of stand out in the wrong way. With 12 of LBSU’s wins against teams ranked 200-plus in the RPI, they are just 8-7 vs. the Top 200. A BracketBusters loss to Creighton could still be a huge miss.
  • Middle Tennesse State (24-5 | 14-2) | RPI: 46 | SOS: 173 | – The Blue Raiders’ profile took a major hit with the loss at Western Kentucky. While MTSU won the outright Sun Belt title, the Blue Raiders’ best non-conference wins are Ole Miss, Belmont, and Akron. Good wins, but not the kind that carry a team into the NCAAs. A loss to anyone other than Denver in the Sun Belt tourney will likely relegate MTSU to the NIT.
  • Nevada (22-5 | 12-1) | RPI: 48 | SOS: 147 | – Nevada is rooting for Washington to win the Pac-12 as the Wolfpack’s victory over the Huskies is their only potential NCAA-level win. Nevada beat New Mexico State Thursday to sweep the Aggies. The Wolfpack also lost a competitive BracketBusters game at Iona. But it’s a loss that could still sting. Overall, Nevada is 1-3 vs. Top 50 teams and 4-3 vs. the Top 100. The Wolfpack have 14 wins against teams ranked 200 or higher in the RPI.
  • Oral Roberts (26-5 | 17-1) | RPI: 40 | SOS: 174 | – ORU beat Xavier, Missouri State, and Akron (BracketBusters) in non-conference play, but XU was without several players. Understandable losses are to Gonzaga, West Virginia, and South Dakota State on the road. When you consider that 14 of ORU’s wins are against teams ranked 200 or higher in the RPI, the margin for error remains small. Reaching the Summit title game will be important.
  • VCU (25-6 | 15-3) | RPI: 58 | SOS: 179 | – The Rams have been helped by some other bubble teams fading away. VCU has also been helped by South Florida’s surge. It’s the Rams’ lone Top 50 win. VCU is 4-4 vs. Top 100 teams but has 13 wins over teams ranked 200 or higher in the RPI. Other notable wins are at Akron (OT) and over Northern Iowa. VCU lost games to Alabama and Seton Hall and it’s only matchup with Drexel. The Rams are 11-1 in their past 12 games, but may need a rematch with Drexel to stay on the right side of the bubble.

Weekend Preview: First place in the Pac-12, SEC on the line

LAS VEGAS, NV - DECEMBER 17:  Lonzo Ball #2 of the UCLA Bruins brings the ball up the court against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the CBS Sports Classic at T-Mobile Arena on December 17, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. UCLA won 86-73.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
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Betting lines won’t be released until later tonight, so our predictions will be based on KenPom’s projected spread. It usually ends up being pretty close to Vegas’ lines.

SATURDAY’S SHOWDOWNS

No. 14 Arizona at No. 3 UCLA, Sat. 4:00 p.m. (CBS): First place in the Pac-12 is on the line on Saturday when Arizona makes the trek to Pauley Pavilion to square off with UCLA. The Bruins, who many believe are actually the best team in college basketball, currently sit a game behind both Arizona and Oregon – who may or may not have just lost Dillon Brooks to another foot injury – in the Pac-12 race, and this will be their chance to close the gap on at least one of those two.

Arizona is an interesting team. On paper, this team has some serious question. As talented as Lauri Markkanen, Rawle Alkins and Kobi Simmons are, and as good as that 17-2 record looks, the Wildcats still really haven’t done anything this season that would make you believe they are the No. 14 team in the country. Their best win is either Michigan State, who is not the Michigan State we thought they were going to be entering the season, or USC on the road.

UCLA, on the other hand, has an offense that is capable of putting up more than 100 points on anyone. They made 19 threes at Colorado. They made 16 threes against Arizona State on Thursday night, knocking down 10-of-13 in the first half. They’ve had two different players go for more than 30 points in Pac-12 play, and neither of them are Lonzo Ball or T.J. Leaf, UCLA’s two lottery picks. UCLA’s issue is that they don’t defend. As dangerous as this team is, they’re currently sitting at 11th in KenPom because they rank 92nd in defensive efficiency, and while I have my doubts about the Wildcats, they do have three guys that can light it up offensively.

  • PREDICTION: UCLA (-4) is where I would want my money, and I think that this game will hit over (+/- 162), too.

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No. 24 South Carolina at No. 5 Kentucky, Sat. 6:00 p.m. (ESPN): The Pac-12 isn’t the only conference where first-place is on the line. South Carolina and Kentucky are the only two undefeated teams left in the league after the Gamecocks beat No. 19 Florida on Wednesday night, and we will get a chance to see the pair of them square off Saturday evening. I think that South Carolina is the second-best team in the SEC, and I think that they do have the pieces to give the Wildcats a fight. It’s worth noting that with Sindarius Thornwell available, South Carolina is undefeated on the season.

Frank Martin’s clubs are never going to get out-toughed, and that is particularly true with this group, whose roster of big, physical veterans have used a pressuring, half-court man defense to sit atop KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. It will be strength on strength for South Carolina, as Kentucky has the nation’s No. 2 offense.

The key? Keep the Wildcats out of transition. Given the lack of perimeter shooting on Kentucky’s roster, if South Carolina can find a way to avoid live-ball turnovers and prevent Kentucky from getting easy buckets on the break – for what it’s worth, no one has really been able to do this – they should be able to keep this game interesting.

The x-factor? Foul trouble. The style that both of these teams like to play does not exactly align with the way college basketball is being officiated this season.

  • PREDICTION: I think Kentucky wins this, but I think the nation’s best defensive team will be able to avoid getting run off the floor, so I’ll take South Carolina (+13).

RELATEDFive Storylines To Follow This Weekend

No. 12 Louisville at No. 10 Florida State, Sat. 2:00 p.m. (ESPN): Florida State is part of a three-way tie for first place in the ACC with Notre Dame and North Carolina after the Seminoles knocked off the Fighting Irish on Wednesday evening. The way Leonard Hamilton’s club got that done was to pressure the Irish in the half court and force them to make mistakes offensively. Notre Dame had to shoot 15-for-21 from three to keep that thing respectable.

Louisville is going to face similar issues offensively as well. Already a team with question marks on that end of the floor, they are going to be playing this game without the services of Quentin Snider, who is dealing with a hip flexor injury. Donovan Mitchell looked good against Clemson on Thursday night, but Clemson and Florida State are two different beasts.

It’s worth noting, however that the ‘Noles have point guard issues as well. Xavier Rathan-Mayes isn’t exactly Chris Paul, and Louisville currently has the nation’s second-best defense.

  • PREDICTION: I don’t think Louisville wins this game on the road without their point guard, so I’m on Florida State (-1). But the best I really like is under (+/- 147). Two tough defenses, two teams without point guards.
LOUISVILLE, KY - JANUARY 11: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Louisville Cardinals shoots the ball during the game against the Pittsburgh Panthers at KFC YUM! Center on January 11, 2017 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Donovan Mitchell (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

FIVE MORE GAMES TO WATCH

  • Syracuse at No. 15 Notre Dame, Sat. 12:00 p.m. (ESPN): The Irish are coming off of their first loss of the season, falling at Florida State despite the fact that they shot 15-for-21 from three. Given the way that Notre Dame can shoot the ball and pass the ball, this may not be the best matchup for the Orange zone. PREDICTION: Syracuse (+10)
  • Georgia Tech at No. 16 Virginia, Sat. 2:00 p.m. (ACC Network): If you haven’t noticed yet, Josh Pastner actually have Georgia Tech playing some good basketball. The Yellow Jackets have wins over North Carolina, Clemson and N.C. State. Their only losses? At Duke, at Louisville and at Virginia Tech. PREDICTION: Virginia (-16)
  • No. 17 Wisconsin at Minnesota, Sat. 4:30 p.m. (BTN): The Golden Gophers got off to a good start to the season, but in the last week they’ve lost at Michigan State and at Penn State. Richard Pitino’s club, if they are going to be a tournament team, needs to land a couple more wins over the top teams from the Big Ten. This is the perfect opportunity. PREDICTION: Wisconsin (-2)
  • No. 7 West Virginia at Kansas State, Sat. 6:00 p.m. (ESPN2): The Wildcats have been on the wrong end of three tough losses already this season. If they are going to have a real chance to get to the NCAA tournament this is the kind of game they need to win. PREDICTION: Kansas State (+3)
  • No. 6 Baylor at TCU, Sat. 8:00 p.m. (ESPNU): TCU is sitting pretty with a 14-4 record, but the Horned Frogs really have beaten anyone yet this season. Two wins over Washington, UNLV, Iowa State, Oklahoma. If this program is going to be good instead of, “Hey, TCU isn’t a guaranteed win anymore,” they need to do things like beat the best teams in the conference at home. That would be Baylor. PREDICTION: Baylor (-2)

Karnowski leads No. 4 Gonzaga past Santa Clara 88-57

Gonzaga forward Zach Collins (32) drives past Santa Clara center Tony Lewis (35) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Thursday, Jan. 19, 2017, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
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SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Coming off a big win in a showdown with rival Saint Mary’s, No. 4 Gonzaga could have been in for a bit of a letdown.

Seeing another frenzied crowd hoping for an upset was more than enough to keep the Bulldogs on their game.

Przemek Karnowski scored 19 points on just seven shots from the field and Gonzaga remained the only undefeated team in Division I with an 88-57 victory over Santa Clara on Thursday night.

“I’ve been here for five years and basically wherever you go it’s the biggest game of the season, in the conference at least,” Karnowski said. “We have to be prepared for that. Their crowd was really into it. We came out focused and I liked our intensity.”

Karnowski made six shots against the undersized Broncos and added seven more points from the free throw line to help the Bulldogs (18-0, 6-0 West Coast Conference) extend the best start in school history with another lopsided win.

Zach Collins had 16 points and Nigel Williams-Goss added 11 points and 10 rebounds in Gonzaga’s 11th straight double-digit win.

“Every game they come out ready to go,” coach Mark Few said. “They come out with energy, effort, and attention to detail has been really good. They’re a mature group.”

Jared Brownridge scored 23 points to lead the Broncos (10-10, 4-3) but got little help from his teammates as Santa Clara dropped its 13th straight to Gonzaga and 37th in the past 39 meetings.

“We just were stagnant on the offensive end – it had everything to do with us,” Brownridge said. “They’re a great team, there’s no argument about it. Tonight’s game had to do with us.”

Gonzaga scored 13 straight points midway through the first half to open a 20-point lead and never looked back as Santa Clara struggled to get open shots and couldn’t keep the Bulldogs out of the paint.

Brownridge keyed a 15-5 run early in the second half that cut a 21-point lead to 11 but the Bulldogs quickly built the lead back to 20 and coasted to the win.

BIG PICTURE

Gonzaga: After easily passing their first true test in conference play with a 23-point win over then-No. 21 Saint Mary’s on Saturday, the Bulldogs avoided a letdown by building the big early lead. There don’t figure to be many tough tests the rest of the regular season outside of a return trip to Saint Mary’s next month so the main task for Gonzaga will be to maintain their intensity before for the tournaments in March.

Santa Clara: The Broncos came into the game having won four of five but it was a different level of competition this game. They missed 14 of their first 18 shots – with six air balls – and never had a chance at the upset. They struggled to get any consistent offense outside of Brownridge and were overmatched inside in coach Herb Sendek’s first game against the class of the WCC.

DEFENDING BROWNRIDGE

Brownridge moved into seventh place on the WCC all-time scoring list with 2,079 points, jumping ahead of Loyola Marymount’s Forrest McKenzie. He made six 3-pointers but Few was happy with the overall defensive effort.

“Brownridge is an unbelievable player and he’s unbelievably gifted coming off those pin-downs and finding his shots,” Few said. “I thought we did a nice job, mixed up the coverages and made it hard, not just on him, but everyone else.”

LIVING AT THE LINE

Santa Clara committed six fouls in the first 4:13 of the second half and Gonzaga lived at the free throw line from there. The Bulldogs shot 18 for 23 from the line in the second half as they repeatedly fed Karnowski and Collins inside.

“They were in the double bonus early in the second half so we tried to take advantage of that and tried to go inside and pin fouls on them,” Karnowski said.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

A lopsided win over an overmatched opponent should do little to change the ranking for the Bulldogs in the AP poll .

UP NEXT

Gonzaga: Hosts Portland on Saturday.

Santa Clara: Hosts Loyola Marymount on Saturday.

More AP college basketball: http://www.collegebasketball.ap.org and https://twitter.com/AP-Top25

No. 3 UCLA routs Arizona State 102-80 behind 3-point barrage

UCLA guard Bryce Alford (20) goes to the basket between Arizona State's Ramon Vila (33) and Kodi Justice during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Los Angeles, Thursday, Jan. 19, 2017. UCLA won 102-80. (AP Photo/Michael Owen Baker)
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LOS ANGELES (AP) Like any shooter in a slump, Isaac Hamilton just kept putting the ball up, figuring it would eventually go in.

Did it ever.

The senior guard scored 33 points – three off his career best – and hit a career-high nine 3-pointers to help No. 3 UCLA rout Arizona State 102-80 on Thursday night.

The Bruins improved to 11-0 at home.

The performance left Hamilton speechless. He cut his tongue in the game and needed stitches afterward, leaving him unavailable to talk to media.

“He’s back,” guard Lonzo Ball said. “I like playing with him like that.”

The Bruins (19-1, 6-1 Pac-12) made 16 3-pointers and shot 60 percent from the field.

Last year if Hamilton wasn’t hitting, the Bruins found it hard to recover on their way to a losing season.

Now, the team is loaded with offensive threats who can pick up the slack for him.

“He gained a lot of confidence in that and he got it rolling,” UCLA coach Steve Alford said. “The guys did a good job of finding him. That’s what makes us hard to guard. We can make shots a variety of different ways.”

The Bruins led by 25 points in the first half and were up by 16 early in the second before the Sun Devils (9-10, 2-4) got within single digits in the matchup of the league’s top two scoring and 3-point shooting teams.

“We started slow but fought back,” said Torian Graham, who led Arizona State with 26 points. “We overcame adversity and I think we showed we can play with anybody. After we cut it to seven, we didn’t get stops and they got a lot of open looks. They’re very good in transition and that was the difference.”

TJ Leaf added 19 points and nine rebounds, and Ball had 10 points and 12 assists for the Bruins.

“It’s always good to see Isaac shoot well,” said Aaron Holiday, who added 13 points. “That’s a big part of his game and I’m glad he finally got it going.”

Tra Holder tied his career-high with 22 points for Arizona State, which has lost seven straight road games to UCLA. The Sun Devils hit 11 3-pointers, including six by Graham.

Graham scored 10 of Arizona State’s first 22 points in the second half to close to 68-61.

The Bruins’ offense kicked in and they ran off 14 straight points to go up 82-61. Holiday scored eight points, including two 3-pointers, in the spurt.

“It was cool to come back on them, but I didn’t get the result I wanted,” Holder said. “We gave up too many easy baskets. They are a fast team and they score before you know it. The game should not have ended like it did. We cut it to seven, but then they went to a zone and we got all discombobulated.”

The Sun Devils dropped their third straight and fourth in five games.

BIG PICTURE

Arizona St.: The Sun Devils play at Southern California before returning home to face the Washington schools. After that, they have a road game against No. 11 Oregon and will face the Bruins once more in February.

UCLA: The Bruins again built a big lead only to see it dwindle to single digits, a habit that has dogged them at times this season. “We got to start picking things up and stop having those 10 minutes where we don’t do too much,” Ball said.

TIDBITS

Arizona St.: Holder joined the 1,000-point club with 1,005 in his first three years.

UCLA: The Bruins had 30 assists for the first time since Feb. 23, 1995, when they had 32 in a win over California. … They have six players averaging double-figure scoring. … UCLA’s 19-1 start is its best since going 21-1 to begin the 1991-92 season.

UP NEXT

Arizona St.: Visits Southern California on Sunday to end a stretch of playing five of its first seven Pac-12 games on the road.

UCLA: Hosts No. 14 Arizona on Saturday in game featuring the Bruins’ No. 1 offense in the Pac-12 against the Wildcats’ No. 1 defense.

More AP college basketball coverage: http://www.collegebasketball.ap.org and http://www.twitter.com/AP-Top25

Donovan Mitchell leads No. 12 Louisville past Clemson

LOUISVILLE, KY - JANUARY 11:  Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Louisville Cardinals shoots the ball during the game against the Pittsburgh Panthers at KFC YUM! Center on January 11, 2017 in Louisville, Kentucky.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
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No. 12 Louisville played their first game without Quentin Snider of Thursday night and it looked like they should play every game without Quentin Snider.

The Cardinals shook off an early nine-point deficit with a 29-10 run to close the first, eventually pounding Clemson into submission in a 92-60 win in the Yum! Center.

Donovan Mitchell led the way for the Cardinals, scoring all 18 of his points in the first half. Deng Adel added 18 points of is own while VJ King, who started in place of the injured Snider, finished with 14, the most he’s scored in ACC play. Perhaps more importantly, that trio finished 7-for-15 from beyond the arc in the win.

Perimeter scoring and perimeter shooting has been an issue for the Cardinals all season long. King is the only one of Louisville’s top five perimeter options that shoots better than 38 percent from the floor, and without Snider available, he’s the only one that shoots better than 34 percent from three. Snider is also the team’s sole point guard, and there were real concern about how this team was going to perform without him.

On Thursday, they did just fine.

Saturday will be a different story.

The Cardinals will square off with No. 10 Florida State, who just forced 18 turnovers against Notre Dame on Tuesday. The Irish are seventh-nationally in protecting the ball, meaning that we are going to get a much better feel for whether or not those point guard issues are real.

No. 11 Oregon blows by Cal, but Dillon Brooks leaves with “lower left leg injury”

Oregon Ducks forward Dillon Brooks (24), collides in the first half against California in an NCAA college basketball game Thursday, Jan. 20, 2016, in Eugene, Ore. Brooks later left the game with an injury on a different play. (AP Photo/Thomas Boyd)
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Oregon defeated Cal on Thursday. The score was 86-63. That hardly matters, though, considering what else occurred in Eugene.

Ducks star Dillon Brooks left the game with a “lower left leg injury,” which is particularly ominous considering it was a surgically repaired left foot that sidelined Brooks all summer and kept him from joining Oregon on the floor until mid-November.

As of Thursday evening, there was no specific clarification, leaving only questions not only about Brooks’ health but what Oregon will have to potentially do without him.

The Ducks can win without Brooks. They went 8-1 before Brooks ever logged 30 minutes in a game and blasted Washington State in Pullman when Brooks got ejected after just seven minutes. They didn’t need him to dismantle the Bears, shooting 58 percent from the floor for the game and 54.2 percent without him in the second half. Jordan Bell made 11 of 12 shots for a career-best 26 points, and three other Ducks scored in double figures.

It wouldn’t be ideal, but Oregon could tread water to a high seed with him missing a chunk of time as they’ve shown at different times throughout this season. The Ducks only have one matchup left with both UCLA and Arizona, coming back-to-back in the first week of February.

But if it’s a serious injury, it necessitates a recalibration of expectation for Oregon.

Brooks scored 23 and had the game-winner as the Ducks handled No. 3 UCLA its lone loss this season and had 28 points when they blew out then-No. 22 USC to end December. Brooks is too talented, too versatile and too important for a prolonged absence to be meaningfully weathered. The NCAA tournament just too often demands too much from teams to be without a player of Brooks’ caliber.

For Oregon to reach the heights that many predicted for it since last spring, Brooks has to be on the floor.

The wait for the diagnosis and prognosis, not just for Brooks but for Oregon’s season, is on.