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Missouri Valley conference tournament preview

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The Valley is, and always will be, the ultimate mid-major conference.

Every year, it seems, this league produces at least one team deserving of an at-large bid that is also capable of making the second weekend of the tournament. Why? Because the conference is so unbelievably competitive. Road wins are not easy to come by. Blowouts are fairly unheard of. Generally speaking, the MVC is as balanced of a conference as you are going to find, and I’m sure that whoever is in charge of putting together the bracket for Arch Madness — which is an event I’ve yet to attend but currently sits just below seeing a Duke-North Carolina game live on my college hoops bucket list — is well-versed in the tie-breakers that determine seeding.

This season is a bit unique. What was once thought to be a banner year for the Valley turned into two teams pulling away from the pack. Wichita State won the league by two games over Creighton, who finished five games in front of the mess that was a five-way tie for third place in the conference. Seriously. Five teams finished 9-9 and a sixth slid it at 8-10. I was saying something about balance earlier …

Anyway, the Valley is a two-bid league regardless of who win this tournament. Wichita State and Creighton are dancing. But if I was a betting man, I would bet the field to win the automatic bid.

That’s just the way they do it in the Valley.

The Bracket

Where: St. Louis

When: March 1st-March 4th

Final: March 4th, 1:05 p.m., CBS

Favorite: Wichita State

Back in November, this fact would have been fairly shocking to most. Creighton was playing their best basketball of the season with a legitimate Player of the Year candidate on their roster while the Shockers were competing with, but losing to, some borderline top 25 teams. It was clear the Shockers were good, but that they became this good — WSU is currently eighth in Kenpom’s rankings — is an impressive feat. But the Shockers are also the hottest team in the country. They won their last six games by an average of 20.7 ppg. That includes a trip to Davidson and a trip to Creighton. The worst team they beat in that run finished in the middle of the Valley pack. Watch out.

And if they lose?: Creighton

I have my reservations about the Bluejays. They don’t defend at an elite level and they have looked fairly ordinary over the last three weeks. But this is a veteran group with a number of weapons, headlined by all-american Doug McDermott, that has proven capable of winning close games. Throw in the fact that the Bluejays shoot the ball as well as any team in the country, and they are always going to be a threat. If they get hot for three days in St. Louis, there is no reason that Creighton can’t come away MVC Tournament champs.

Sleepers: There are almost too many to name. Indiana State won the league last year and returned most of their lineup, landing a couple of marquee wins throughout non-conference play. Northern Iowa had an impressive start to the season. Missouri State, Drake and Evansville all have legitimate stars on their roster. Like I said, this tournament is going to be a lot of fun.

Studs:

Kyle Weems, Missouri State: The reigning MVC Player of the Year took a while to get going, but he is as capable of taking over a game as anyone in the conference. He had 31 when the Bears beat Creighton in Omaha.

Rayvonte Rice and Ben Simons, Drake: There is a legitimate argument to make that these two are the MVC’s best one-two scoring punch.

Colt Ryan, Evansville: When this kid gets hot, watch out. He went for 43 points in an overtime loss to Creighton.

Garrett Stutz, Wichita State: The seven-footer is the best big man in the conference and one of the reasons that the Shockers won’t have a much of an issue as other mid-majors matching up with high-major front lines.

Doug McDermott, Creighton: How many all-americans make their way through the Valley?

Rob Dauster is the editor of the college basketball website Ballin’ is a Habit. You can find him on twitter @robdauster.

No. 14 West Virginia takes care of No. 15 Baylor

West Virginia forward Devin Williams (41) dunks the ball during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Baylor, Saturday, Feb, 6, 2016, in Morgantown, W.Va. (AP Photo/Raymond Thompson)
AP Photo/Raymond Thompson
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Not exactly noted for their ability to knock down shots from the perimeter, No. 14 West Virginia grabbed sole possession of first place in the Big 12 thanks in part to their perimeter shooting. The Mountaineers shot 7-for-14 from three and 49.1 percent from the field in a 80-69 win over No. 15 Baylor that wasn’t as close as the final margin would lead one to believe.

Bob Huggins’ team led by as much as 19 in the second half, and the way in which they did it is what makes the win so impressive. “Press Virginia” yielded just ten Baylor turnovers, but that low number didn’t matter much thanks to West Virginia’s execution offensively.

They found quality looks against Baylor’s 1-1-3 zone in the first half and made them at a good clip, forcing Scott Drew to switch to man-to-man. That change didn’t do much to slow down West Virginia either, as Daxter Miles Jr. scored 20 points and sixth man Jaysean Paige added 17 off the bench. And with Devin Williams chipping in with 16 points and seven boards in the post, outplaying Baylor’s Rico Gathers Sr. (five points, seven rebounds), West Virginia grabbed control of the game in the first half and did not relinquish it.

The usual formula for West Virginia offensively is to attack the offensive glass, as their offensive rebounding percentage (43 percent) is tops in the country. “Their best offense is a missed shot” is a familiar refrain heard when people discuss the Mountaineers, who entered the game shooting just over 30 percent from three.

They didn’t need to lean on those second chances as heavily as they normally do Saturday night, not only because of the improved accuracy but also the improved work in finding shots. The ball moved against the Baylor defense and so did the players, resulting in an offensive attack that proved tougher for the visiting Bears to stop that one would expect given the statistics entering the game.

West Virginia was already established as a contender in the Big 12, but thanks to their win Saturday night the Mountaineers are the current pace setters. With a showdown at No. 7 Kansas set for Tuesday night, this was a big win for Bob Huggins’ team to get. And with it coming in spite of a low turnover (forced) count, this should only help West Virginia in the confidence department moving forward.

No. 22 Indiana falls at Penn State

Penn State's Shep Garner (33) moves towards the basket during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Indiana in State College, Pa., Saturday, Feb. 6, 2016. (AP Photo/Ralph Wilson)
(AP Photo/Ralph Wilson)
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Brendan Taylor scored 24 points to lead Penn State to a 68-63 upset of No. 22 Indiana on Saturday night.

The Nittany Lions were 2-8 in Big Ten play entering the weekend. Indiana? They were 9-1 and tied for first in the conference. It’s the second loss in four games for the Hoosiers following a 7-0 start to Big Ten play, a fact made all the more concerning by the fact that their league schedule is finally about to get difficult.

The Hoosiers play No. 5 Iowa at home and No. 10 Michigan State in East Lansing next week. The following week they get No. 18 Purdue at home. In the final week of the regular season, Indiana squares off with No. 5 Iowa on the road and close the regular season with a visit from No. 4 Maryland.

That’s a lot of good teams that the Hoosiers to close out the year.

The question has been asked since Indiana’s hot start to league play: Are they for real? Did the Hoosiers really somehow turn things around defensively, or was that winning streak simply a by-product of their schedule?

The truth is that it was probably a combination of both. Calling them a fraud would be unjust — if you watched those games, there wasn’t much fluky about them; Indiana earned the Ws — but it does seem fair to say this is something of a regression to the mean.

They were going to slip up eventually.

And it will totally be forgotten if the Hoosiers can find a way to close the regular season with a winning record in their final seven games.