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Blogger Spotlight: Duke’s defense, potential and the Devil nobody hates

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Once again, Duke’s doing its thing in college hoops. The Devils are a Top 10 mainstay, feature an offense that can stroke the 3 and a post players who focus on rebounding and ensuring those perimeter shooters get their shots.

And in case you missed it, they’re also atop the ACC standings, tied with Florida State.

So what await coach Mike Krzyzewski’s team the rest of the season. I asked Adam Rowe, the founder and editor at Duke Hoop Blog for analysis of the season thus far and insight to what’s ahead.

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Q: Does this feel like a Top 10 team? The Devils are 18-3, but sure seem to catch a lot of grief, even before the home loss to FSU. (Coulda been worse, though. Coulda been on the road by 33.) Heck, even Coach K wasn’t overly pleased after Saturday’s win against St. John’s. This is just part of Duke basketball, right?

A: Based on their body of work, the 2012 version of the Duke Blue Devils absolutely feels like a Top 10 team. After losing seniors Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, along with No. 1 overall NBA draft pick Kyrie Irving, this team had serious scoring, assisting, and most importantly leadership voids entering November.

The trips to China and Dubai in August certainly helped mold the team’s chemistry and allowed Austin Rivers and Michael Gbinije to assimilate into post-high school basketball more quickly, but this was still a team searching for an identity heading into their Nov. 11 game against Belmont at home. Since that one-point win, the team played a ridiculous non-conference schedule (tops according to kenpom.com, RPI) beating teams currently ranked five, 11, and 21, all at neutral sites. They also got a win over 19th-ranked Virginia in their second ACC game. I don’t see any other teams in the polls with that kind of record. Sure, they tripped up against Florida State, but the Devils didn’t look bad doing it.

As far as getting grief, we are talking about Duke here. There is no in between with this team. You either think Mike Krzyzewski is the devil incarnate or that Christian Laettner’s shot against Kentucky was guided by supernatural beings.

Q: What’s behind the defensive issues? Can they be fixed?

A: Duke has never finished below 20th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive rankings (I’m a big tempo-free guy if you haven’t noticed) yet this year they sit at 84. I think there are a number of reasons that can be extrapolated for this team’s propensity to give up points, but no magic bullet.

We can go back to the strength of schedule that Duke has played and point to that as a reason. We’ll stick with kenpom.com here for a standard, and see that Duke’s opponents boast college basketball’s third-toughest offenses. This is even including Virginia, who sits at 95. Well, Alabama is the only other team to have faced a Top 5 offensive schedule to be ranked in the KenPom Top 40.

Moving beyond their opponents and concentrating on Duke, there is clearly something missing on the defensive side of the ball. Much has been made of Duke’s perimeter defense and it certainly was an issue heading into the season. We are actually taking part in the Project Defensive Scoresheet Project initiated by Luke Winn and David Hess. Hopefully, through analyzing Duke’s defense by a number of metrics, we will be able to show a much clearer picture of what/who is causing the drop in Duke’s defense. You can see the first installment here, with the Western Michigan game.

Q: Even if the defense does have issues, the offense is as good as any in recent seasons. Andre Dawkins is a stone-cold killer, Austin Rivers has his sick crossover, Seth Curry’s due for a huge day and the Plumlees are the kings of second-chance points and alley-oops. But does it seem like Ryan Kelly should get more looks? Or is he getting the right amount of shots for his game? 

A: Ryan tends to play somewhat of a quiet game, so you may not notice the shots that Ryan is able to get. He’s tied for third on the team with Mason Plumlee and Andre Dawkins at 149 shots on the season. If you look at these charts from Statsheet.com (deselect the previous two years to see just this year’s) you can see that Ryan is getting 21.3 percent of Duke’s shots while participating in 21.9 percent of the possessions.

If anything, Duke should look to get Ryan more open behind the 3-point line as he is the most accurate shooter there by a wide margin at 47.2 percent. For one reason or another, he has only taken 53 three-pointers compared to 110 for Andre Dawkins, 87 for Seth Curry, and 73 for Austin Rivers.

Q: Rate Rivers’ season. Few freshmen came in with more hype. How’s he done?

source: APA: Austin started off the year outstanding, and even most of the his harshest critics (I’m looking at you, Sebastian Pruiti) can admit that. While his offensive production has fallen off as defenses have become more keyed on him, he is still a net positive player for Duke. His +/- of +200 points while he’s on the court makes him worth 10.5 positive points for his team. (His full game log is here.)

Coach K decided to bench Rivers for the start of the Wake Forest game on Jan. 19 but that game he dropped 20 points on 32 minutes. He has played 38 minutes in the two games afterwards and scored 19 and 10, respectively. Like any freshman, he’s going through growing pains but with his immense talent and ability and the foundation of a lifetime around the game of basketball, I expect him to be playing his best basketball in the spring.

Q: Is Tyler Thornton underrated as a point guard? Seems to me that the guys they’ve tried – Curry, Rivers – and hope blossom as a PG – Quinn Cook – have been inconsistent. Meanwhile, Thornton’s kinda like Jon Scheyer, only with a defensive emphasis. Duke doesn’t really miss a beat with Thornton in there, but the general consensus is that things could be better.

A: I think it’s easy to say that Tyler Thornton is underrated in everything he does as he’s not really rated by anyone, ever. He knew his role at Duke was to come in and be a four-year player. The fact that he’s contributing offensively as early as he is can be attributed to an extremely high level of character and work ethic. He is generally a steadying hand as the lead guard, doesn’t take a whole lot of risks, and can knock down an outside shot every once in a while.

As a point guard, Tyler is not going to lead a fast break or cut through a defense to drive, draw, and dish but he does give the team calm. A lot of people talk about Tyler’s defensive prowess, but his strength there lies in his help defense and ability to jump passing lanes. He, like all of Duke guards, have a tendency to get beat by their men on the perimeter.

Q: Well then, I’ll be sure to stop talking about Thornton on defense (musta been a default phrase). Is anyone on Duke worth much on defense? Say I need someone to check Harrison Barnes. Who’s it gonna be?

A: A lot of people talk about Tyler as a defensive stopper. I’m not exactly sure where that observation came from (although he does have Duke’s best stop% at 55.3 percent.) It probably comes from the fact the he is an in-your-face type player and is relentless. As I said earlier, he is a really good off the ball defender, but I wouldn’t call him a stopper, per se.

Duke’s defense has been an issue all year, but the guards have been shown to get blown by quite regularly. Whether that’s a function of an overplay style or lack of lateral quickness or mental lapses is a matter of debate, but it is definitely an issue compared to other years.

Barnes is one of those guys who will give Duke matchup problems as there is nobody on the team with his physical attributes. Josh Hairston did show an ability to stop Draymond Green when Duke played Michigan State, but Barnes has much more ability as a shooter than Green. It will be interesting to see who picks him up. Andre Dawkins played him pretty tight in the ACC Tournament last year. Maybe he can replicate that success.

Q: I was among those who wrote about the declining attendance among the Cameron Crazies. It’s not something that’s specific to Duke, but – like most everything else related to Duke hoops – you guys probably take more hits on this because of the Crazies’ rep and because it’s Duke. Is there anything regarding Duke you do think gets a fair shake?

A: There are certain writers that give Duke a fair shake, but for the most part they use Duke to get more page views, which is what we are all in this business for. As I said above, Duke is the most polarizing team in college basketball (maybe college sports). There’s a reason the game against Butler was the highest rated of the 20 years prior. I think you, Jeff Eisenberg, Luke Winn and a few others give Duke a fair look but there are certainly some who don’t.

Q: Twitter segue: How often do people pick fights with you in that medium? And vice versa?

A: I get trash talked quite a bit, especially after Duke loses. At first I responded, but I know now that people use the cloak of anonymity for role play. I’ll either ignore it now or simply block the person. I do talk trash, but only if it’s people I interact with on a regular basis.

Q: Everyone loves to hate Duke players. Is there a guy who non-Duke fans love? Grant Hill comes to mind.

source: APA: Grant Hill is a guy nobody can hate but Nolan Smith is the one that immediately pops into my mind.

Some friends and I ran a marketing campaign to get Nolan the National Player of the Year Award last year, and even UNC fans were commenting about how much they liked him and wanted to see him succeed. I think for Nolan, putting himself out there like he did in the “Lessons From My Father” article really humanized him to a point where people could actually see him as a person and not just as a basketball player. That, and his outgoing personality really endeared him to a lot of Duke fans, but also non-Duke fans as well. I hope that he can continue to stay in the spotlight as he has a lot of good to show the world off the court.

Q: How’s the response been to Duke Hoop Blog? Is there a day in the future when that’s your only job?

A: I feel like I’ve been blessed to have a really good response from the site. I started it one night when my wife went out on her bachelorette weekend and I was sitting around the house with nothing to do. It was more of a hobby than anything. I wrote a few articles that got some recognition, started tweeting (there really wasn’t a Duke fan presence on Twitter at the time I started but there definitely is now), and now I have four writers who contribute to the site and am getting around 30,000 hits per day. I’m lucky for those guys (follow them on twitter @thedevilwolf, @ClykinsBlog, @R_Horn21, @Bleed_DukeBlue1) because I have a full time job, I’m married, have a social life, and am taking 12 hours of classes to change careers. Without their contributions, this site would not be alive today.

There was a week or two in the offseason when I considered shutting it down just because I knew the time suck would be so large. @thedevilwolf in particular is a huge reason why I kept going.

As far as this being my only job, I don’t think that’s feasible unless I went to a pay model and that is not something I’m interested in. This is a labor of love for me, and something I do because I am passionate about Duke Athletics. This site is a way I feel like I can give back for all the great memories and emotions that Duke has given me ever since I first stepped foot in Cameron as a young boy.

You can read more of Adam’s writing at Duke Hoop Blog and follow him on Twitter @DukeHoopBlog.

You also can follow me on Twitter @MikeMillerNBC.

VIDEO: The dorm for Kansas basketball players is ridiculous

LAWRENCE, KS - FEBRUARY 27: Bill Self head coach of the Kansas Jayhawks claps for his team as they celebrate winning the Big 12 Conference Championship after they defeated Texas Tech Red Raiders 67-58 at Allen Fieldhouse on February 27, 2016 in Lawrence, Kansas. With the win, Kansas clinched its 12th straight conference championship. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
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Indoor basketball courts.

A kitchen that’s nicer than what is in my home.

A pool table.

A rooftop patio overlooking the baseball field.

Flat-screens literally everywhere.

The $12 million building also houses 17 students that don’t play on the basketball team. I wonder how much money their parents had to donate to the school to get them on that list?

[Video via KUHoops.com, a Jayhawk-centric vertical launched by the Kansas City Star this month. Go ahead and bookmark that page. You’ll want it.]

College Basketball’s Impact Transfers

MEMPHIS, TN - MARCH 01: Austin Nichols #4 of the Memphis Tigers defends the shot of Luke Hancock #11 of the Louisville Cardinals during the game at FedExForum on March 1, 2014 in Memphis, Tennessee. Memphis won 72-66.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
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Beginning in September and running up until November 11th, the first day of the season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2016-2017 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.

MORE: 2016-17 Season Preview Coverage | Conference Previews | Preview Schedule

Transfers have become a controversial topic in college basketball, with a record number of players seeking new teams every offseason. Graduate transfers and the more traditional variety that forces players to sit a season before playing are now both a huge part of roster construction and many of the best programs in the country are turning to transfers every offseason to help give them a boost.

With so many new faces in new places, here’s a look at some impact players that will be playing for a new program this season. Some of these players are good enough to make our NBCSports.com Preseason All-American Team while others could be that extra spark off the bench that comes up big in March.

MORE: All-Americans | Expert Picks | A Different Grayson Allen? | Trending programs

1. Austin Nichols, Virginia (via Memphis): The Cavaliers are trying to replace Mike Tobey and Anthony Gill and getting Nichols is going to be huge in that equation. After sitting out a season, Nichols will be asked to anchor Virginia’s famous pack-line defense and he’ll be equipped to do so after being third in the nation in blocks (3.4 a game) as a sophomore at Memphis. But Nichols can also score and rebound and he could be in for a monster season. NBCSports.com has faith that Nichols will be a huge impact for the ‘Hoos as he sits as a second-team Preseason All-American.

2. Nigel Williams-Goss, Jonathan Williams and Jordan Mathews, Gonzaga (via Washington, Missouri and Cal): Gonzaga utilized transfers as well as any team in the country to help build its roster this season as they get Williams-Goss and Williams coming off of a season of sitting out while Mathews can come in and provide another perimeter scorer right away. Williams should be a frontcourt impact for the Zags, but it’s Williams-Goss and his all-around efforts at lead guard that could net him All-American honors with a strong season. All three are hoping to lift Gonzaga to its first ever Final Four.

3. Marcus Foster, Creighton (via Kansas State): We saw two different versions of Marcus Foster during his two seasons at Kansas State and the Bluejays are hoping for the version that tore up the Big 12 as one of the premier freshmen in the country. After sitting out last season, Foster will be paired with talented point guard Mo Watson Jr. to form one of the nation’s best backcourts. Good luck defending both of these guys if they get rolling. Also with the potential to be a great defender, Foster could be an All-Big East selection if he returns to his freshman form.

4. Kyle Washington, Cincinnati (via N.C. State): With a lot of starts under his belt in the ACC, Washington should make an immediate impact for the Bearcats in replacing Octavius Ellis. With two more years of eligibility, Washington could be a huge boost to Cincinnati’s interior efforts as he can protect the rim a bit while also rebounding and scoring in the post. This summer among the college counselors at the Under Armour All-American Camp, Washington was one of the better players on the floor, so it’ll be interesting to see if that translates to success at his new school.

5. Andrew White, Syracuse (via Nebraska): One of the latest to commit as a graduate transfer this offseason, White gives the Orange a proven wing scorer who should be able to step in and help offset some of the loss of Malachi Richardson and Michael Gbinije. White isn’t the playmaker that Gbinije was, but he gives Jim Boeheim’s offense a double-figure scorer who could be valuable near the end of a possession if they’re looking for something from the perimeter.

LINCOLN, NE - FEBRUARY 3: Andrew White #3 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers shoots the ball over Rasheed Sulaimon #0 of the Maryland Terrapins during their game at Pinnacle Bank Arena on February 3, 2016 in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Eric Francis/Getty Images)
Andrew White (Eric Francis/Getty Images)

6. Manu Lecomte, Baylor (via Miami): The Bears get a perimeter threat in Lecomte as he shot 45.8 percent from three-point range as a sophomore. Potentially taking the reigns at lead guard, Lecomte could be one of Baylor’s most important players this season.

7. Cullen Neal and Deandre Burnett, Ole Miss (via New Mexico and Miami): Playing for his father at New Mexico didn’t work out and Neal’s three-point ability should fit in nicely in Ole Miss’ free-flowing offense. Burnett has a chance to be a major contributor as a scorer to help offset the loss of Stefan Moody.

8. Josh Newkirk, Indiana (via Pittsburgh): With the loss of point guard Yogi Ferrell, Newkirk gives Indiana an experienced guard who can really push the pace in Tom Crean’s uptempo system.

9. Shaqquan Aaron, USC (via Louisville): There is no doubting the talent of the former top-50 prospect, but Aaron hasn’t played a full season in nearly two years. It will be interesting to see if he’s ready to start on the wing for a USC team that lost a lot of talented players.

10. Josh Cunningham, Dayton (via Bradley): The former four-star prospect could be a major contributor to the Flyers as he rebounds well and can also play multiple spots in the frontcourt thanks to some versatility.

11. Eric Paschall, Villanova (via Fordham): The former A-10 Rookie of the Year gives the defending national champs another talented forward this season as he’s a capable scorer who can also provide some help on the glass.

12. RaShid Gaston, Xavier (via Norfolk State): After sitting out a season, Gaston should help fill some of the production after James Farr and Jalen Reynolds both departed. Gaston averaged 15.5 points and 9.6 rebounds per game two seasons ago and could see major minutes.

Michigan guard Spike Albrecht (2) makes a layup between Northern Michigan forward Brett Branstrom, top left, and center Vejas Grazulis (52) in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Mich., Friday, Nov. 13, 2015. Michigan won 70-44. (AP Photo/Tony Ding)
Purdue guard Spike Albrecht (AP Photo/Tony Ding)

MORE NAMES TO KNOW

Spike Albrecht, Purdue (via Michigan): Health will be the major question for the former Michigan point guard — as he’s coming off of dual hip surgeries that all but eliminated his final season at Michigan — but he could provide Purdue with a steady lead guard that they’ve been craving.

Sedrick Barefield and David Collette, Utah (via SMU, Utah State): Another program experiencing a lot of roster turnover, the Utes could ask for major minutes from both of these guys when they’re eligible after first semester. Barefield could be a ball handler who helps Lorenzo Bonam in the backcourt while Collette is more proven than most on the roster in the frontcourt.

Canyon Barry, Florida (via Charleston): The son of Rick Barry gives the Gators an additional scorer as he had at least 20 points in seven of 13 games last season. You should also keep an eye out for Barry’s under-handed free throws, which he took from his father’s game.

Darrell Bowie and Merrill Holden, Iowa State (via Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech): Continuing in Fred Hoiberg’s tradition of bringing in talented transfers, Steve Prohm brought in two experienced and productive mid-major options who could receive major minutes.

Elijah Bryant and L.J. Rose, BYU (via Elon and Houston): With Dave Rose’s love of three-guard lineups, expect plenty of minutes from these two this season. Bryant was a major contributor for Elon as a freshman (14.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg) while Rose is an experienced guard who can play multiple spots.

Jordan Caroline, Leland King and Marcus Marshall, Nevada (via Southern Illinois, Brown and Missouri State). Head coach Eric Musselman took three talented transfers who are now eligible as King and Marshall are proven double-digit scorers and Caroline is a productive forward who can score and rebound.

Corban Collins and Nick King, Alabama (via Morehead State and Memphis): Returning to the SEC after starting his career at LSU, Collins could start at point guard for the Crimson Tide after making second-team All-OVC honors last season. King is a former top-100 prospect who can fill it up from the perimeter when he’s feeling it.

Junior Etou, Tulsa (via Rutgers): Tulsa’s roster is loaded with newcomers and the forward will be expected to contribute right away after showing solid production at Rutgers.

Shannon Evans, Arizona State (via Buffalo): Bobby Hurley gets his former Buffalo guard in the fold this season and Evans could start alongside Tra Holder to form a two-point guard lineup. Evans is a former second-team All-MAC selection who helped the Bulls to the NCAA tournament with Hurley as coach.

Davonte Fitzgerald, Reggie Lynch and Akeem Springs, Minnesota (via Texas A&M, Illinois State, Milwaukee): All three of these transfers have a chance for big minutes at Minnesota. Fitzgerald is a versatile wing, Lynch is a major shot blocker and rebounder down low and Springs is a double-figure scorer who is physical enough to handle the Big Ten.

Anton Gill, Nebraska (via Louisville): Tim Miles has done a great job with transfer guards and Gill is hoping to play a larger role after his time at Louisville. While sitting out last season, Gill proved in practice that he could be a major scorer for the Huskers this season.

L.G. Gill, Maryland (via Duquesne): Maryland was crushed by roster turnover and Gill gives them an experienced forward who can step in and provide some production on the glass and scoring inside.

Montaque Gill-Caesar, San Diego State (via Missouri): Showing some promise at Mizzou, this former four-star recruit gives the Aztecs more lineup flexibility as he could force Steve Fisher to play more three-guard lineups. Gill-Caesar gives San Diego State a nice matchup problem.

John Gillon, Syracuse (via Colorado State): A tempo-pushing guard who can score, Gillon will be asked to help run some point for the Orange, but he’s most comfortable playing in attack mode and finding his own offense.

J.C. Hampton, Texas A&M (via Lipscomb): Texas A&M lost Anthony Collins and Alex Caruso and freshman J.J. Caldwell is ineligible this season so Hampton becomes a huge addition after earning All-Atlantic Sun honors last season. Hampton will push for minutes at point guard after putting up 15.4 ppg last season.

Tony Hicks, Louisville (via Penn): Louisville was successful with transfers last season and they’re hoping Hicks can be another boost. Although not as talented as Damion Lee and Trey Lewis, Hicks is a proven scorer who should be a key role player.

Que Johnson, Junior Lomomba, Pancake Thomas, Western Kentucky (via Washington State, Providence, Hartford): New head coach Rick Stansbury aggressively hit the transfer market and came away with two double-figure scorers in Johnson and Thomas and a rugged and experienced defender in Lomomba.

Christian Kessee, Memphis (via Coppin State): Memphis is looking for any kind of help they can find in the backcourt and Kessee averaged 14.6 points and shot 39.5 percent from three-point range last season. He should provide a floor spacer and could start at either guard spot.

Terry Larrier, UConn (via VCU): A talented and versatile wing forward, Larrier should be a nice frontcourt addition to the Huskies that gives them a scoring boost as he has a lot of upside to be a major contributor the next few seasons.

Anthony Livingston, Texas Tech (via Arkansas State): Chris Beard did a great job with transfers at Little Rock and Livingston gives the Red Raiders a talented offensive threat after he put up 15.5 points and 9.4 rebounds last season.

Shelton Mitchell, Marquise Reed and Elijah Thomas, Clemson (via Wake Forest, Robert Morris, Texas A&M): Clemson’s backcourt was shaky last season and Mitchell and Reed — the former NEC Rookie of the Year — should help. Thomas is eligible after first semester and he’ll give the Tigers a potential post scoring threat who can rebound.

Semi Ojeleye, SMU (via Duke): Never a huge part of the rotation at Duke, this former four-star forward could be asked to play a huge role in SMU’s frontcourt as Ojeleye will help replace Markus Kennedy and Jordan Tolbert.

Rodney Pryor, Georgetown (via Robert Morris): One of the most productive low-major players in the country the last few seasons, Pryor gets to see how he fares in the Big East after putting up 18 points and 8 rebounds per game last season.

Katin Reinhardt and Andrew Rowsey, Marquette (via USC and UNC Asheville): Marquette struggled to hit perimeter shots last season and they’re hoping this duo provides them a major lift in that department. Reinhardt is a former top-100 prospect while Rowsey put up 19.7 points per game in two seasons at Asheville.

Alex Robinson, TCU (via Texas A&M): Jamie Dixon could count on this former four-star prospect to be a primary ball handler early as Robinson gives the Horned Frogs a steady lead guard to play with talented freshman Jaylen Fisher.

Stanford Robinson, Rhode Island (via Indiana): Things didn’t work out for the former top-100 prospect at Indiana but Robinson provides a valuable rotation piece for the Rams who play multiple spots on the floor. With star E.C. Matthews coming off an ACL injury, Robinson is huge from a depth perspective.

Kethan Savage, Butler (via George Washington): The athletic guard averaged double figures during his two seasons in D.C. but he’s coming off of shoulder surgery. Along with Memphis grad transfer Avery Woodson, Savage should help fill in for Roosevelt Jones.

Jaren Sina, George Washington (via Seton Hall): With plenty of Big East experience under his belt, Sina should help the Colonials as a playmaking guard who can score or distribute. If Sina’s perimeter shot becomes more consistent he could be a really nice pickup.

LaRon Smith, Auburn (via Bethune-Cookman): The addition of Smith boosts the Auburn frontcourt as he was sixth in the nation with 96 blocked shots last season. With talented forward Horace Spencer frequently getting in foul trouble, Smith could see a lot of minutes and might even be a starter.

Geno Thorpe, South Florida (via Penn State): Thorpe showed some scoring punch at Penn State and he gives the Bulls another perimeter weapon to help draw attention away from AAC All-Rookie selection Jahmal McMurray.

Keyshawn Woods, Wake Forest (via Charlotte): The Demon Deacons will get a perimeter boost with the addition of Woods as he shot 46.6 percent from three-point range as a freshman with the 49ers. Woods could start immediately this season.

Colorado State's John Gillon (4) shoots against Fresno State during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in the semifinals at the Mountain West Conference men's tournament Friday, March 11, 2016, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)
Syracuse guard John Gillon (AP Photo/David Becker)

2016-17 Season Preview: Programs on the Rise, Decline

Rick Stansbury, left, speaks at a news conference where he was announced as the new men's NCAA college basketball coach at Western Kentucky on Monday, March 28, 2016, in Bowling Green, Ky. (AP Photo/Michael Noble Jr.)
AP Photo/Michael Noble Jr.
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Beginning in September and running up until November 11th, the first day of the season, College Basketball Talk will be unveiling the 2016-2017 NBCSports.com college hoops preview package.

MORE: 2016-17 Season Preview Coverage | Conference Previews | Preview Schedule

Almost every program in the country begins the season with optimism and an idea of how the season might break their way, but the reality is that only some schools are destined to meet or exceed expectations and others are fated to fail to reach their goals.

Here’s a look at where we see 10 programs headed in the future, five that are on the rise and five that may never reach their peak again.

MORE: All-Americans | Expert Picks | A Different Grayson Allen?

Virginia Tech head coach Buzz Williams celebrates in the final moments of the Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech NCAA basketball game in Blacksburg, Va., Monday, Feb. 9, 2015. Virginia Tech won 65-63.  (AP Photo / The Roanoke Times, Matt Gentry)    LOCAL TELEVISION OUT; SALEM TIMES REGISTER OUT; FINCASTLE HERALD OUT;  CHRISTIANBURG NEWS MESSENGER OUT; RADFORD NEWS JOURNAL OUT; ROANOKE STAR SENTINEL OUT
Virginia Tech coach Buzz Williams (AP Photo/The Roanoke Times, Matt Gentry)

PROGRAMS ON THE RISE

Virginia Tech: It hasn’t been the smoothest transition for Buzz Williams in Blacksburg, but it looks as though the Hokies are now ready to take the next step forward. They’re returning the bulk of last year’s team — namely Seth Allen and Zach LeDay — that went 10-8 in the ACC, won its last five regular-season games and knocked off Florida State in the conference tournament. They also picked off a pair of top ten teams during the year in Miami and North Carolina. No one can motivate a group of players that feel disrespected for being overlooked the way that Buzz can, and that’s what he has this year.

Memphis: I don’t think anyone is expecting Tubby Smith to add to his national championship count with the Tigers, but Smith proved at Texas Tech that he’s still capable of winning more than 40 years into his career. He got the Red Raiders into the NCAA tournament, and the job in Lubbock is significantly more difficult than it is in Memphis, albeit with lower expectations. Still, expect Smith to consistently get the Tigers into the Dance and out of the malaise of the last few years of the Josh Pastner era. His public reputation is negative — part of the fallout from his split with Kentucky a decade ago — but Smith has outperformed expectations at every job that he has had throughout his career.

TCU: The Horned Frogs are dumping money into hoops to climb out of the Big 12 cellar, and early returns suggest its working. They upgraded their facilities in a big way with a $72-million arena renovation and, more importantly, went and got alum Jamie Dixon to leave a stagnant – yet successful – situation at Pitt. Dixon is a proven winner and already is pulling in four-star recruits. The dividends may not be paid in full this season, but the Frogs are on the come up in a big way.

Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers have had plenty of success in their history, but it appears that first-year coach Rick Stansbury is setting things up for a major upgrade. First, he brought one-time Texas A&M Class of 2017 five-star commit Mitchell Robinson over with him and then added top-60, four-star guard Josh Anderson. There’s not a program in C-USA that can even come close to matching that kind of talent. And while the future is incredibly bright, he’s also added a number of transfers — including Providence’s Junior Lomomba and Washington State’s Que Johnson, both of whom are eligible this season — to bolster the roster this season.

Rhode Island: Last year was supposed to be a breakthrough for the Rams, but the torn ACL of E.C. Matthews derailed those dreams and stuck Rhode Island in mediocrity. Given Matthews’ talent and an almost bonus year of experience from the rest of the roster, things seem to be coalescing for Rhode Island to have a memorable – if not better – season under Dan Hurley. Their back court (Matthews, Jarvis Garrett, Jared Terrell, Stanford Robinson) is one of the best in the country.

PROGRAMS ON THE DECLINE

UNLV: It’s not like the Runnin’ Rebels were exactly killing it under Dave Rice, but they were recruiting at a level new coach Marvin Menzies isn’t likely to match. Also, the process for replacing Rice shined a light on how coaches see the UNLV job and the situation at the school. The Rick Pitino rumors never materialized and then they couldn’t pry Mick Cronin from Cincinnati before agreeing to terms with first-year Arkansas-Little Rock coach Chris Beard, whose contract wasn’t approved until two weeks later after a contentious Board of Regents vote. Then Beard bounced for Texas Tech just a couple weeks later, leaving the Rebs with Menzies and a roster that had just two scholarship players on it. The rebuild won’t be impossible, but it will take some time.

Georgetown: After four-straight seasons of being at least a top-six seed in the NCAA tournament, the Hoyas have missed the dance in two of the last three years, finishing below .500 last season for the first time since a 13-15 mark got Craig Esherick fired in 2004. The Hoyas aren’t developing their talent like we’ve seen in the past, and they’re likely to finish in the middle of the Big East pack this season, a couple of red flags that the program isn’t exactly trending upward.

Missouri: This may not even be an accurate spot for the Tigers given they’ve had just 19 wins overall and six in the SEC during Kim Anderson’s first two years in Columbia, but considering Anderson’s 2016 recruiting class didn’t feature a player ranked in the top-200 of 247Sports’ composite rankings and only one returner averaged double-digit scoring last year, rock bottom may still be looming for Missouri.

Stephen F. Austin: This one is almost just by default given the success the Lumberjacks have enjoyed in recent years. Brad Underwood is at Oklahoma State and Thomas Walkup is in the pros, and Stephen F. Austin really can’t improve one what those two accomplished together. One league loss in three years and two Southland Player of the Year awards is basically impossible to match, let alone top. New coach Kyle Keller has a great resume and tons of experience recruiting Texas, but some sort of step back seems inevitable given the heights Underwood brought to the program.

Nebraska: Tim Miles arrived with a lot of enthusiasm four years ago and Nebraska opened a $180-million arena in 2013, but the Huskers have just one NCAA tournament appearance and three losing seasons to show for it. The late grad transfer of Andrew White is a major blow, and Nebraska simply doesn’t have a ton of talent or experience on the roster, nor do they appear to be making any major gains on the recruiting trail. Simply put, Miles is finding out what all his predecessors have – it’s very hard to win in Lincoln.

Georgetown coach John Thompson III speaks before practice for an NCAA college basketball second round game in Portland, Ore., Wednesday, March 18, 2015. Georgetown plays Eastern Washington on Thursday. (AP Photo/Don Ryan)
Georgetown coach John Thompson III (AP Photo/Don Ryan)

VIDEO: Asheville player hits trick shot

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 18:  Kevin Vannatta #10 of the UNC Asheville Bulldogs drives against Jalen Brunson #1 of the Villanova Wildcats in the first half during the first round of the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Barclays Center on March 18, 2016 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.  (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
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UNC-Asheville has gotten into the trick shot game.

The basketball program’s official Twitter account posted this video of guard Kevin Vannatta nailing a shot from the balcony of Kimmel Arena.

Nice shot, huh?

Vannatta, a junior from Upper Arlington, Ohio, started all 34 games for the Bulldogs last year, averaging 11.5 points and 4.2 rebounds per game while shooting 50.6 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from 3-point range. It looks, though , like he might be working on extending his range.

Northwestern finds new home for 2017-18

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Northwestern has found a temporary home while its arena undergoes a nine-figure renovation.

The Wildcats will play the 2017-18 season at Allstate Arena, about 15 miles west of Evanston, Ill. in Rosemont, the school announced Tuesday.

“We are excited to partner with Allstate Arena to host Northwestern men’s basketball games during the 2017-18 season while Welsh-Ryan Arena is undergoing its renovation,” Northwestern vice president for athletics and recreation Jim Phillips said in a statement. “The venue has a rich college basketball tradition in the Chicagoland area. I know that our fans will enjoy cheering on our team at Allstate Arena during what will be an exciting season.”

Allstate Arena previously had been home to DePaul, which is moving into its own new building this year. Capacity is around 18,000 for basketball.

Northwestern had its best season under coach Chris Collins last year, going 20-12 overall and 8-10 in the Big Ten.

The renovation to Welsh-Ryan Arena will bring the building – which opened in 1952 and last renovated in 1983 – into the 21st century by replacing wood bleachers, widening concourses, adding concessions, improving arena technology and adding new locker rooms at the cost of at least $110 million.

Construction is slated to begin in spring of 2017 and be completed in the fall of 2018.