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Latest NCAA tournament projections all about 1 seeds, bubbles and more

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Put your fingers together very closely.  That’s the margin we now have in the race for No. 1 seeds.  At least among the five leading contenders – Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas, Kansas, and Duke.  San Diego State and BYU could be in play if one wins both the outright Mountain West title and the MTW conference tournament crown.  Despite losses by all top four seeds this week, the top line remains status-quo.  Kansas keeps a slight edge for the final No. 1 spot thanks to a few more Top 100 wins.  Winning the ACC (league and tourney) would likely vault the Blue Devils above the Jayhawks, but this is where we’re at for a few more days.

The bubble remains highly suspect, although we did lose a few teams this week.  More to come in an updated Bubble Banter (Tuesday).  Not sure you like any of the final few teams in or out?  Same here. We still have a lot to be decided.  Virginia Tech is once again right on the cutline, and the Hokies project to just miss (again) today.

As always, rebounds welcome.  Bring along some notes.  Follow more on Twitter at BracketguyDave.  Enjoy the hoops.  Next bracket update will be Friday as we begin two-a-weeks until Selection Sunday.

UPDATED: Monday, February 21 | Records reflect Division I games only – through February 20.

Teams in CAPS represent the projected conference champion for this bracket. Exceptions are made for those teams that traditionally use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc).

NOTE: In the new 68-team format you will notice two pairing games that represent the First Four pairings. In this bracket the First Four games in Dayton would be … Gonzaga vs. Richmond | Boston College vs. VCU | Texas Southern vs. McNeese State | Murray State vs. Hampton. The final four at-large teams are paired along with the teams seeded 65-68 on the S-curve. The matchups are indicated in the bracket below.

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTNewark   SOUTHEASTNew Orleans
Cleveland   Cleveland
1) OHIO STATE (25-2)   1) PITTSBURGH (24-3)
16) HAMPTON / MURRAY ST     16) NcNEESE ST / TX-SOUTHERN
8  UNLV (20-7)   8  Washington (18-8)
9) Old Dominion (22-6)   9) Tennessee (16-11)
     
Washington, DC   Tampa
5) Vanderbilt (20-6)   5) Syracuse (22-6)
12) CHARLESTON (21-7)   12) Gonzaga / Richmond
4) Connecticut (20-6)   4) North Carolina (20-6)
13) FAIRFIELD (22-5)   13) CLEVELAND STATE (21-5)
     
Tampa   Chicago
6) West Virginia (17-9)   6) St. John’s (17-9)
11) Colorado State (17-9)   11) Memphis (20-7)
3) FLORIDA (21-5)   3) Purdue (22-5)
14) COASTAL CAROLINA (21-3)   14) BUCKNELL (19-8)
     
Charlotte   Denver
7) Temple (21-5)   7) GEORGE MASON (23-5)
10) Kansas State (17-9)   10) Marquette (16-11)
2) DUKE (25-2)   2) BYU (24-2)
15) LONG ISLAND (22-5)   15) VERMONT (22-6)
     
SOUTHWEST – San Antonio   WEST – Anaheim
Tulsa   Tulsa
1) TEXAS (23-4)   1) Kansas (24-2)
16) LONG BEACH (15-10)   16) MONTANA (17-8)
8  Florida State (19-7)   8  Cincinnati (21-6)
9) UTAH STATE (24-3)   9) Illinois (17-10)
     
Denver   Washington, DC
5) ARIZONA (23-4)   5) Kentucky (19-7)
12) MISSOURI STATE (21-7)   12) Boston College / VCU
4) Louisville (20-7)   4) Villanova (21-6)
13) UTEP (19-6)   13) OAKLAND (19-9)
     
Tucson   Charlotte
6) Missouri (20-6)   6) Texas AM (20-5)
11) ST. MARY’S (20-6)   11) Michigan State (14-11)
3) Wisconsin (20-6)   3) Georgetown (21-6)
14) PRINCETON (19-5)   14) BELMONT (25-4)
     
Chicago   Tucson
7) XAVIER (20-6)   7) UCLA (19-8)
10) Alabama (18-8)   10) Georgia (18-8)
2) Notre Dame (21-5)   2) SAN DIEGO STATE (25-1)
15) KENT STATE (16-9)   15) FLA ATLANTIC (17-9)

 

 

NOTES on the BRACKET: Ohio State remains the No. 1 overall seed followed by Pittsburgh, Texas, and Kansas. The two seeds in order are Duke, San Diego State, BYU, Notre Dame

Last Five teams in (at large): Memphis, Boston College, Gonzaga, Richmond, VCU

First Five teams out (at large): Virginia Tech, Southern Mississippi, UAB, Clemson, Minnesota

Also Considered: Baylor, Butler, Penn State, Wichita State, Washington State

Bracket adjustments: None in this bracket.

Here is the team breakdown by Conference …

Big East (11): PITTSBURGH, Connecticut, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville, St. John’s, Cincinnati, Marquette

SEC (6): FLORIDA, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama

Big 12 (5): KANSAS, Texas, Texas AM, Missouri, Kansas State

Big Ten (5): OHIO STATE, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State

ACC (4): DUKE, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College

Mountain West (4): SAN DIEGO STATE, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State

Pac 10 (3): ARIZONA, UCLA, Washington

Atlantic 10 (3): XAVIER, Temple, Richmond

Colonial (3): GEORGE MASON, Old Dominion, VCU

West Coast (2): ST. MARY’S, Gonzaga

Conference USA (2): UTEP, Memphis

Missouri Valley (1): MISSOURI STATE

Horizon (1): CLEVELAND STATE

Auto Bid conference champions … Utah State (WAC), Murray State (OVC), Fairfield (MAAC), Kent State (MAC), Montana (Big Sky), Charleston (Southern), Oakland (Summit), Long Beach (Big West), Long Island (NEC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt), Princeton (Ivy), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Hampton (MEAC), Bucknell (Patriot), Vermont (America East), McNeese State(Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC)

N.C. State’s Dennis Smith Jr. fully recovered, ready to go

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RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) Dennis Smith Jr. sure looks ready.

North Carolina State’s prized freshman point guard is pushing through a workout in the practice gym on a hot July afternoon, and there’s no sign of the knee injury that defined his past year.

He’s sprinting along the baseline to bury a catch-and-shoot corner 3-pointer. He’s dribbling between chairs and stutter-stepping his way to a pull-up jumper. He’s launching himself at the rim for a dunk off the dribble.

“I don’t expect to be rusty at all,” Smith said in an interview with The Associated Press. “I was feeling kind of nervous at one point, but I went in and did a workout and then I was thinking, `I’m putting in all this work so all the nervousness should be out of my mind.’ I had no reason to be timid.

“I just have to go out there and perform, no excuses.”

A lot has happened for Smith in 12 months. The Fayetteville native suffered a torn left anterior cruciate ligament in a game during the Adidas Nations event featuring top prospects. He had surgery, picked N.C. State, graduated from high school early and enrolled in college in January to rehab and learn the Wolfpack’s system before his debut later this year.

Tuesday marks one year since the injury for the 6-foot-3 Smith, ranked by ESPN as the nation’s No. 1 point guard when he signed last fall.

“We’ve tried to be real conservative with him as far as not letting him do too much too fast,” coach Mark Gottfried said. “At his age, he can’t wait. He’s dying to play every day.”

Smith started earning his leadership role as soon as he arrived in Raleigh, pointing out instructions to teammates or calling them to the gym for extra work even though he couldn’t play. He figures that time observing from the sideline has prepared him to replace high-scoring floor leader Anthony “Cat” Barber.

“I feel like I’ve gotten smarter, definitely,” Smith said. “I see the game totally different now. I read pick-and-roll easier. I feel like I’ve gotten more sound on defense because I understand angles better.”

The physical work to get back has been tougher.

Roughly a year ago, Smith was lying in a bed after surgery trying to stay positive. He asked trainer Ja-Rell Bailey to bring him some free weights for upper-body exercises even if he couldn’t do much else, an example of why Bailey described Smith as “a man determined.”

Smith’s father said the rehab emphasized building leg strength to protect and stabilize the injured knee, something his son said he will keep doing in both legs for years to come. Smith’s work has helped him go from 180 pounds to a college-ready 192-pound frame.

“He’s got his bounce back, so he can dunk and everything,” Dennis Smith Sr. said. “But what Junior has got, God gave it to him. . A lot of times you run into kids who are built off of hype because they do a fancy move or have a good game. Junior ain’t hype. He’s the real deal.”

Regardless, Gottfried expects Smith to have “a learning curve.”

“For me,” he said, “I think what you see in November is going to be much different than what you see in January.”

The Wolfpack will look much different, too, after missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in five seasons. N.C. State welcomes Scout.com’s No. 6-ranked recruiting class that includes five-star Turkish big man Omer Yurtseven. Senior guard Terry Henderson returns from an ankle injury that sidelined him 7 minutes into last season. Charlotte transfer and former Conference USA freshman of the year Torin Dorn Jr. will play after sitting out last year.

Still, Smith is the guy stirring the most buzz for Wolfpack fans – something he has no trouble embracing.

“I really don’t feel that pressure though,” Smith said. “I feel like if you come in and you expect to play well, then you should have those expectations of people talking. It’s just playing basketball to me. I’ve been doing it my whole life.”

Follow Aaron Beard on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/aaronbeardap and the AP’s college basketball site at http://collegebasketball.ap.org

Washington lands commitment from Mamoudou Diarra

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For the second time this summer, Washington has landed a commitment from a forward in the Class of 2017.

On Friday, it was Mamoudou Diarra that pledged his future to Lorenzo Romar. Diarra is a 6-foot-8 combo-forward that is currently unranked by Rivals but was targeted by a number high major program.

Washington landed a commitment from Michael Porter Jr. earlier this summer, and given Porter’s standing as the potential No. 1 player in the class, the Huskies will be in the mix for the best crop of freshmen in the country in 2017-18. Romar has also landed commitments from four-star guard Jaylen Nowell and three-star guard Blake Harris.

RELATED: How the Michael Porter Package Deal came to fruition

Diarra played his high school basketball in St. Louis.

Xavier lands second top 100 commitment in 2017

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Xavier landed a key commitment on Friday morning in Naji Marshall, one of the Musketeers’ top targets in the Class of 2017.

Marshall is a la 6-foot-5 wing from Washington D.C. that is currently ranked 62nd in the 2017 class by Rivals. He’s a scorer that has shown off a versatile offensive game, averaging better than three assists on the Under Armour Association circuit.

This is the third commitment from head coach Chris Mack in the class and the second top 100 player to pledge to the Musketeers. Marshall picked Xavier over Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Rhode Island and Virginia Tech, among other.

Four-star 2018 guard Coby White commits to North Carolina

North Carolina coach Roy Williams, center, reacts with his team behind him after a play during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament against Pittsburgh, Thursday, March 10, 2016, in Washington. North Carolina won 88-71. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
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With guards Jalek Felton and Andrew Platek having committed in their 2017 recruiting class, North Carolina received a commitment from one of the better guards in the Class of 2018 Thursday night. Four-star guard Coby White, who’s ranked 61st in his class by Rivals.com, made his pledge to Roy Williams’ program. News of White’s commitment was first reported by Scout.com.

The 6-foot-4 White is a native of Wilson, North Carolina, where he attends Greenfield HS, and he played his grassroots basketball for the CP3 16U basketball program this summer. His commitment to UNC comes just a couple days after the ACC school offered him a scholarship.

White took an unofficial visit to UNC in June, and his play in July ultimately led to the program making the aforementioned scholarship offer. By the time White enrolls in Chapel Hill, current veterans such as Joel Berry II and Nate Britt will be out of eligibility. Among the perimeter would could potentially be on campus in 2018 are freshmen Seventh Woods and Brandon Robinson, and sophomore Kenny Williams.

White is the second commit in the 2018 class for the Tar Heels, with 6-foot-7 guard Rechon Black being the first.

Point guard Small to transfer from Oregon

SPOKANE, WA - MARCH 18:  Kendall Small #21 of the Oregon Ducks shoots over Derek Mountain #40 of the Holy Cross Crusaders in the second half during the first round of the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena on March 18, 2016 in Spokane, Washington.  (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
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After navigating a lack of depth at the point to win the Pac-12 regular season and tournament titles and earn the program’s first-ever one seed in the NCAA tournament, Oregon will have no such issues in 2016-17. Dylan Ennis, who missed most of last season with a foot injury, is back for another season as is returning starter Casey Benson. Add in freshman Payton Pritchard, whose shooting ability can help a team that struggled from three a season ago, and Dana Altman has multiple players to call upon at that spot.

That left Kendall Small, who played just under eight minutes per game as a freshman, in a spot where it would have been tough to earn more playing time as a sophomore. As a result he’s decided to transfer, with the news first being reported by Scout.com.

In addition to the three guards mentioned above, sophomore Tyler Dorsey also has the ability to make plays with the ball in his hands. Small will have three seasons of eligibility remaining at whichever school he chooses to transfer to, and he’ll have to sit out the 2016-17 season per NCAA transfer rules.

A 6-foot guard from Anaheim, Small’s best outing came in Oregon’s 77-59 win over Savannah State on November 23. In that game Small accounted for nine points, four assists and three rebounds in 23 minutes of action. But he played double-digit minutes in just four games after the Ducks began Pac-12 play in early January, the last of which being Oregon’s win over Holy Cross in the first round of the NCAA tournament.